Gold price prediction today: Will gold prices continue to be under pressure on March 17, 2026? Check outlook

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Surge in oil prices and a firmer US Dollar Index continue to weigh on gold. (AI image)

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices will continue to take cues from crude oil prices, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.Gold Performance:

Surge in oil prices and a firmer US Dollar Index continue to weigh on the gold. In fact, moves in oil are dictating moves in most of the commodities including gold.
The yellow metal closed with a loss of 1.2% at $5019 on March 13, which amounted to a weekly loss of around 3% -- Its second straight weekly loss—as the much-derided US Dollar took a peek above the crucial 100-mark for the first time since November 25.
The US Dollar and crude oil are giving stiff competition to gold as new safe havens as the Middle East war rages.
At the time of writing this article, spot gold was changing hands at $4995, down nearly 0.5% for the day on March 16. The MCX April gold contract at Rs 157,794 was down by 1.69%.

Geopolitics and oil Watch:

On Monday, the US Dollar Index see-sawed with crude oil prices. Oil is highly volatile with traders reacting to shifting possibilities of the oil flow disruption intensity as the Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed amid uncertainty over the duration of the raging war.
Oil prices slumped on Monday following a rally to $100+ level, which led the Dollar Index lower.
Iran struck new targets across the Persian Gulf, including a key United Arab Emirates oil hub, which caused the UAE oil-export terminal of Fujairah to suspend loadings temporarily.
The US President Trump called on world powers to send warships to provide escorts to commercial vessels, but nations are cautious in their response.
IEA’s coordinated plan: Countries in Asia have committed to release over 100 million barrels; a similar amount is to be released in Europe, while the US intends to release 170 million barrels.

ETF and COMEX inventory:

As of February 13, total known global ETF holdings stood at 99.73 MOz, up by around 0.78 MOz YTD. It is to be noted that gold ETF holdings have fallen 8 out of 10 days since the Iran war began on February 28. Since then, holdings are down by nearly 1.19 MOz.
Registered COMEX gold inventory at 16.69 MOz has fallen to the lowest level since February 14, 2025, and is down by over 31% from the record peak of 24.25 MOz seen in April 2025 -- 'Liberation Day' tariff episode.

Data roundup:

US data released on Monday were mixed: empire manufacturing Index fell to -0.2 in March from 7.1 in Feb; industrial production rose to 0.2% in February Vs the estimate of 0.1%; NAHB housing index at 38 in March beat the forecast of 37.
US data released on Friday were somewhat mixed as annualized Q4 GDP came in at 0.7% (forecast 1.4%); Core PCE price index was up 0.4% m-o-m in January (forecast 0.4%), while the Index rose 3.1% y-o-y (forecast 3.1%). Real personal spending was up by 0.1% in January (forecast 0%). University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell from 56.6 to 55.5 (prel. March reading), though the data beat the estimate of 54.80 as both short-term and long-term inflation expectations eased. JOLTs job openings rose from 6550K in December to 6946K in January Vs the estimate of 6750K jobs.

US Dollar Index and yields:

The US Dollar Index closed with a daily gain of 0.62% at 100.36 on Friday, thus posting a weekly gain of around 1.36%.
Two-year US yields at 3.73%-- highest since August 202-- were up by around 5% for the week, while Ten-year yields at 4.28% were up by nearly 3.5%
The Index, at the time of writing this report, was hovering around 99.82, down by roughly 0.5%.
Two-year US yields at 3.69% were down over 1%, while ten-year yields at 4.22% were down by 1.33%

Rate bets:

Despite a dismal Feb. nonfarm payroll report, investors now look for slightly more than one Fed rate cut this year as oil prices have surged stoking inflationary concerns.
The present rate pricing is in sharp contrast to the expectations of slightly more than 2 rate cuts seen a few weeks ago.
Some of the ECB officials are of the opinion that the Central Bank may be forced to hike rates sooner than expected due to inflation risk in the Middle East war.

CTFC data:

Money managers have increased their bullish gold bets by 1,381 net-long positions to 102,236 in the week ending March 10.
The net-long position was the most bullish in six weeks Long-only positions rose 2,126 lots to 126,132 lots. The long-only total was the highest in six weeks Short-only positions rose 745 lots to 23,896 -- the highest in three weeks.

India's gold and silver investment demand falls:

India's trade deficit narrowed to $27.1 billion in February from $34.7 billion in January, driven by a pullback in gold imports. Total imports eased to $63.7 billion in February from $71.2 billion in January, led by a slump in gold and silver imports.
Gold and silver imports fell to $9.1 billion from $14.1 billion as investment demand eased following the price correction from end-January peaks.
Net inflows into ETFs of these precious metals dropped to 44.3 billion rupees from 335.0 billion rupees in January.

Central bank watch:

The US FOMC will deliver its monetary policy decision on March 18. The Committee is expected to keep the overnight Fed Fund rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%.
Bank of Japan is expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% in its monetary policy decision due on March 19.
The Bank of England is likely to change its key policy rate unchanged at 3.75% in its meeting on March 19.
Similarly, the ECB is expected to maintain the main refinancing rate at 2.15% in its monetary policy decision due on March 19.

Upcoming data:

Key US data on the deck this week include Feb. PPI (March 18), January total net TIC flows and Philadelphia Business outlook (March 19).

Gold Price Outlook:

In the short term, gold and other commodities are expected to take cues from crude oil. The US Dollar Index can rise to 102 level on US's energy independence and risks to the oil importing nations including EMs and Europe.
Rising odds of fewer Fed rate cuts will weigh on commodities. Gold is still expected to do better than most of the commodities, especially metals.
Gold may test support at $4840 as the Dollar Index can rise further on reduced rate cut probability. Resistance is at $5250/$5450.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

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