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In the near-term, gold is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias as the Fed Chair observes that inflation has been coming down. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today: Gold is likely to move higher and consolidate with a bullish bias in the near-term, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.Gold Performance:
- On July 6, spot gold traded between $4128 and $4202 as the metal ceded its intra-day gains on a firmer US Dollar.
- At the time of writing this article, the spot gold was trading with a daily loss of 0.30% at $4163.
- Earlier, in the week ending July 3, the metal recovered to post its first weekly gain in five as the Fed Chair Warsh assuaged inflationary concerns and the US nonfarm payroll report for June was weaker-than-expected.
- In the previous week, the yellow metal traded in the range of $3943 (June 30) and $4196 (July 3); it closed with a weekly gain of 2% at $4176.
Geopolitics and oil:
- The next round of US-Iran technical talks may be held in Islamabad on July 11th.
- Despite a US-brokered ceasefire, Israeli air strikes hit Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, which killed at least four people.
- OPEC+ agreed to raise output targets by an additional 188k bpd, which was in line with expectations.
- Brent oil futures were largely steady around $72 on Monday.
Data roundup:
- The US ISM Services PMI (June) at 54 matched the estimate, though the Index edged lower from 54.5 in May. The employment index increased from 47.9 to 51.2 - the first expansion since February, whereas the Price Index also eased from 71.30 to a four-month low of 67.7; however, as the price Index remained above 50, prices have increased for straight 109 months.
- US nonfarm payroll report released Friday showed that US added 57K jobs Vs the forecast of 113K jobs as two-month payroll net revision of -74K jobs took the 3-month job average down from 164K in May to 111K in June. Average hourly earnings at 0.3% m-o-m and 3.5% (prior 3.4%), respectively, met their respective forecasts. Unemployment rate dipped from 4.3% to 4.2% (prior 4.3%) though in ‘low fire, low fire’ job scenario. Labour force participation rate edged lower from 61.8% to 61.5%, which can stoke wage inflation if trend continues.
Dollar Index and yields:
- The US Dollar Index, which, in the week ending July 3, closed at 100.86-- down 0.3% for the week, recovered on Monday on rate hike notions. The Index rose to 101.15 before easing to 100.87 at the time of writing.
- Two-year US yields at 4.125% were down half a basis point, while ten-year yields at 4.48% were up by 1 bps.
Warsh and Lagarde talk down inflation risks:
- On July 1, the Fed Chair Warsh, in a panel discussion with other key central bankers at ECB’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal reiterated commitment to price stability; however, he also said that inflation has come down in four weeks, though he did not specify the inflation metric. His remarks alleviated concerns over inflation. He added that it was too early to judge whether current investment surge in technology is generating broad-based inflation. However, as he refused to give any guidance on the Fed's interest rate outlook, markets may continue to remain on edge regarding Fed rate hike possibilities, which will keep upside in gold capped.
- The ECB’s President Lagarde, in the same panel discussion, said that risks to the Eurozone’s growth and inflation risks were broadly balanced now so urgent rate hike to curb inflationary pressure is not necessary
ETFs and COMEX Inventory:
- Total known global gold ETF holdings were up for the second day on July 2; holdings at 96.67 Moz are down 2.28 MOz YTD though.
Hong Kong’s pension fund to invest more in gold:
- Hong Kong's pension fund will be able to invest in more gold ETFs as part of the government's push to turn the city into a gold trading hub, South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported citing sources.
Upcoming data:
- Major US data on tap this week include June ISM services (July 6), June 20 weekly ADP employment change (July 7) and June existing home sales (July 9). FOMC minutes of the June 17 FOMC meeting will be released on July 8.
- Traders will monitor China's June PPI and CPI (July 9), too.
Gold Price Outlook:
- In the near-term, gold is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias as the Fed Chair observes that inflation has been coming down and the US nonfarm payroll has been weaker-than-expected; however, upside is expected to be contained as markers continue to price in the Fed rate hikes aggressively. Nonetheless, we note that the probability of Fed hiking rate by the year-end has come down from 100% to 77%, which is largely supportive of gold.
- The metal can climb to $4300 in the near-term. Immediate resistance is at $4200, while support is seen at $4115/$4000.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
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