Govt plan: Keep south share unchanged in LS, list each state’s new count in ‘schedule’

For example, if Tamil Nadu has 39 seats in the present Lok Sabha and its share in the total is 7.2%, it will remain 7.2% in the Lok Sabha with up to 850 seats. It is estimated that the strength of each state will increase by 50%. So, in Tamil Nadu’s case, it is likely to have 57 or 58 seats.

The sources said this is what Union Home Minister Amit Shah has said in public so far, and it will deflate the Opposition’s criticism that southern states will have a lesser voice in the Lok Sabha. Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister MK Stalin has been leading protests, saying  states in north India such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have seen a sharp rise in population, and a delimitation on the basis of 2011 Census would result in their share rising sharply.

In the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty-First Amendment) Bill, 2026, Article 81 has been amended to facilitate an increase in the maximum number of Lok Sabha seats to 850 from 550 now (815 for states, and 35 for Union territories). Article 82 effectively delinks the delimitation exercise with Census 2026 and future Censuses too.

The sources said inter-state redistribution just means distribution of the increased number of seats, not on the basis of population, but on a pro-rata basis to maintain federal balance. “One-third of the seats will be reserved for women.… The delimitation exercise will take care of the boundary change of constituencies within the states, based on the 2011 Census,” the source said. Till now, this intra-state adjustment of constituencies is based on the 2001 census.

The three Bills — Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty-First Amendment) Bill, 2026, the Delimitation Bill, 2026, and the Union Territories Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026 — cleared last week are likely to be introduced during the extended session of Parliament beginning Thursday.

The Constitution Amendment Bill did not mention a pro-rata increase of 50% Lok Sabha seats for all states — something that sources in the government had been saying for weeks. The Delimitation Bill talks about delimitation on the basis of the latest census figures available, which is the 2011 Census.

This, opposition MPs felt, would change the proportionate share of the states, as there was differential growth of population in different states by 2011. The absence of equal increase in the allocation of seats to states in the three Bills made many in the opposition question the intent of the government, with Stalin and Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy openly criticising the move.

This delimitation exercise to redraw Lok Sabha constituencies will be the first one after the 1971 census, as delimitation was frozen for 25 years each in 1976 and 2001 so that southern states, whose population had begun to stabilise while the population growth of some other states had picked up pace, did not feel they would lose their share. It was said that the freeze would incentivise family planning measures and lead to population control.

The main challenge during the session will be the passage of the Constitutional Amendment Bill, as it would require a special majority in both the Houses – two thirds of the members present and voting, which should not be less than one half of the strength of the House. Both houses must separately pass the Bill.

BJP sources acknowledged that the party was engaging with floor leaders “across the board” for ensuring that the requisite numbers required for the three proposed Bills are met. During its outreach, party leaders had sought to emphasise that “all the issues pointed out by them had been assessed and addressed” in the proposed amendment to the Bill which was passed in September, 2023.

“The discussion is likely to be led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah; both leaders, especially the PM, are more than ready to address specific issues, such as delimitation and its impact on South Indian states, being raised by the opposition,” a senior leader said.

Any Constitutional amendment will require 360 votes in the Lok Sabha, if all present members turn up. The BJP, at 240, has the highest number of seats. The NDA’s total seat tally is 293, excluding seven independent MPs. The non-NDA, of which the Congress with its 98 members is the largest party, has 241 members.

The present strength of the ruling NDA in the Rajya Sabha is as follows — BJP 106, TDP 2, JD (U) 4, Shiv Sena 2, RLD 1, JD (S) 1, AGP 1, NCP 4, AIADMK 5, RPI (Athawale) 1, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (Upendra Kushwaha’s party) 1, United People’s Party (Liberal) 2, apart from 7 nominated members who haven’t yet joined the BJP, independent Rajya Sabha MP Kartikeya Sharma, and one each from the MNF, NPP and PMK. This adds up to 145. Five nominated members who joined the BJP have already been counted in the BJP’s tally of 106.

In the case of parties that can take a line against the BJP, the Congress has gone up from 27 to 29 members, the TMC has 13, the AAP 10, the BJD 6, the Samajwadi Party 4, the NC 3, the BRS 3, the DMK 8, the Shiv Sena (UBT) 1, the NSP (SP) 1, the CPI (M) 3, the RJD 3, the JMM 2, the IUML 2, the CPI 2, the MDMK 1, the Kerala Congress (M) 1, the BSP 1, and the DMDK 1.

The present strength of Rajya Sabha is 245, and the two-thirds mark at full strength is 163.