How Israel Is Using Fear & Firepower To Systematically Break Iran’s War Machine: ISW-CTP Insight

Last Updated:March 20, 2026, 20:13 IST

The pervasive sense that any servicemember can be targeted at any time has triggered a breakdown in Iran's traditional military discipline

The ongoing Israeli air campaign against Iran’s internal security and military infrastructure has reached a critical inflection point as of late March 2026. According to recent assessments from the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project (ISW-CTP), a coordinated series of “decapitation strikes" and tactical operations has induced a state of operational shock across the Iranian regime’s coercive apparatus. By targeting every echelon of the security hierarchy—from the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and high-ranking commanders like the Basij’s Gholamreza Soleimani down to low-ranking members at local checkpoints—the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have disrupted the regime’s internal command-and-control structures to a notable degree.

This disruption is as much psychological as it is kinetic. The pervasive sense that any servicemember can be targeted at any time has triggered a breakdown in traditional military discipline. Intelligence reports indicate that security personnel from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) have begun abandoning established headquarters in favour of improvised, suboptimal facilities. Some units have reportedly sought cover under overpasses or operated out of tents in wooded areas, allowing tactical fear to dictate deployments rather than strategic necessity. While this level of demoralisation is significant, analysts caution that it may not yet be sufficient to trigger a total regime collapse without the presence of an organised indigenous opposition force capable of exploiting the vacuum.

Simultaneously, the combined force has successfully expanded its air superiority by systematically degrading Iran’s defensive capabilities. Israeli military sources report that approximately 85 per cent of Iran’s surface-to-air missile inventory has been destroyed. Despite this, the environment remains hazardous, as evidenced by a recent incident on 19 March where an American F-35 was forced to make an emergency landing after being struck by Iranian anti-aircraft fire during a combat mission. To maintain this aerial dominance, strikes have continued against critical electronic and missile infrastructure, including the Shiraz Electronic Industries and the IRGC’s Shahroud Missile Facility, aimed at crippling Iran’s ability to produce military hardware and conduct retaliatory ballistic launches.

The theatre of operations has also shifted northwards to the Caspian Sea, targeting the strategic supply lines between Iran and Russia. On March 18, the IDF struck the Bandar Anzali Port, damaging dozens of vessels and a shipyard. This operation effectively shut down a vital corridor used for the exchange of military technology, including Russian-produced Shahed drones. These drones, now being manufactured with Russian components, have been a primary concern for international security after being linked to attacks on US bases. By severing this maritime link and continuing to strike internal security hubs like police stations in Tehran and Kermanshah, the combined force aims to isolate the Iranian regime both internationally and domestically. While the long-term objective of “creating conditions for regime change" remains a work in progress, the current campaign has undoubtedly left the regime’s security system functioning in a severely compromised state.

News world How Israel Is Using Fear & Firepower To Systematically Break Iran’s War Machine: ISW-CTP Insight

Read More