How Much Rain Deficit Is Too Much? What India's Worst Monsoon Years Tell Us About 2026

Last Updated:June 20, 2026, 07:00 IST

History suggests that a poor June doesn't translate into a drought. But it also shows that when deficits persist into July and August, the consequences are hard to reverse.

After racing across much of the country early June, the southwest monsoon has hit an unexpected pause. Rainfall has weakened across large parts of central, western and peninsular India, delaying sowing, raising concerns over water availability and reviving memories of some of India’s worst monsoon years.

As of June 18, India was running a significant rainfall deficit, almost 40 per cent, after the monsoon stalled because of an unusual combination of unfavourable weather systems, including the absence of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, weak moisture transport from the Arabian Sea, a subdued Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), weak cross-equatorial winds and the emergence of El Nino conditions over the Pacific.

The immediate question is whether this is merely a temporary pause or the beginning of another difficult monsoon season. History suggests that a poor June does not automatically translate into a drought. But it also shows that when deficits persist into July and August, the consequences for agriculture, inflation and economic growth become much harder to reverse.

Nearly three-fourths of India’s annual rainfall arrives during the June-September southwest monsoon. June is especially critical because it marks the beginning of kharif sowing for crops such as rice, soybean, cotton, pulses and maize. A weak June can delay sowing and reduce soil moisture. However, meteorologists point out that July and August together contribute a much larger share of seasonal rainfall. Strong rains during these months have often helped erase early deficits.

That is why weather experts caution against declaring a drought based solely on June rainfall. What matters more is whether the monsoon revives quickly enough to sustain agriculture during the peak growing period.

The Benchmark: What Counts As Monsoon Deficit?

The India Meteorological Department classifies the June-September monsoon as:

• Normal: 96-104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA)
• Below normal: 90-96 per cent of LPA
• Deficient: Less than 90 per cent of LPA

While these classifications apply to the entire season, rainfall distribution is equally important. A season can end close to normal nationally while several states experience severe deficits, affecting crops and water supplies unevenly.

1918: The Worst Drought In More Than A Century

The monsoon of 1918 remains one of the most devastating in India’s recorded history. Climate studies estimate that nearly 40 per cent of the country experienced extreme or exceptional drought conditions – an extent unmatched by any other monsoon season over the previous 120 years. The failed rains triggered widespread crop losses, acute shortages of food and fodder, and a famine that affected large parts of the country during the final years of British rule.

1972: The Benchmark Against Which Modern Droughts Are Measured

The drought of 1972 has long served as India’s reference point for severe monsoon failure. Seasonal rainfall ended about 24 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA), making it one of the driest monsoons in independent India. The drought affected vast stretches of western and central India, particularly Maharashtra, and caused extensive agricultural losses. Decades later, when the country faced another major drought in 2009, policymakers repeatedly compared it with the 1972 crisis.

1987: A Nationwide Agricultural Crisis

The 1987 monsoon failed across much of the country, leaving seasonal rainfall roughly 19 per cent below normal. Nearly 60 per cent of India’s cropped area was affected, while more than 85 million people faced severe drought conditions. Researchers have described it as one of the worst droughts of the twentieth century because of its scale, widespread crop damage and the large population impacted.

2002: India’s Worst Monsoon In Nearly Two Decades

India ended the 2002 southwest monsoon season with rainfall around 19 per cent below normal, making it one of the weakest monsoons since 1987. The most damaging feature that year was not merely the seasonal deficit but the collapse of rainfall during July – the single most important month for crop growth. Reservoirs failed to recharge adequately, kharif production dropped sharply and agricultural GDP contracted, dragging down overall economic growth.

Large parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and other central Indian states experienced severe drought conditions.

2009: Another Nationwide Drought

Seven years later, India witnessed another major monsoon failure. Seasonal rainfall finished about 22 per cent below normal, making 2009 one of the driest monsoons in decades. Rice, sugarcane and pulses were among the worst-affected crops. Food inflation surged over the following months as agricultural output declined and water shortages intensified across several states. Unlike isolated regional droughts, 2009 affected large parts of the country simultaneously, placing enormous pressure on food supplies and rural incomes.

2015: A Weak Season That Began With a Strong June

The 2015 monsoon offers an important lesson for interpreting current conditions. Although the season eventually ended with rainfall about 14 per cent below normal, June itself was unusually wet, recording rainfall above the long-period average. The deficit emerged later, primarily during July, August and September, as El Nino strengthened over the Pacific.

Despite the below-normal season, India managed to limit agricultural damage compared with 2002 and 2009 because irrigation coverage had expanded and water management had improved in several states.

How Does 2026 Compare?

The current season has similarities with previous difficult monsoon years, particularly because rainfall has stalled unusually early despite a rapid initial advance.

Several regions, especially Maharashtra, central India and parts of southern India, are already reporting large rainfall deficits. Mumbai has recorded one of its driest starts to June in over a decade, forcing authorities to impose water restrictions even before the monsoon’s full arrival.

However, meteorologists stress that it is still too early to compare 2026 directly with drought years such as 2002 or 2009.

Much depends on whether fresh low-pressure systems develop over the Bay of Bengal during the second half of June and early July. Historically, these systems have often revived stalled monsoons and substantially reduced early-season rainfall deficits.

The Bigger Concern: Timing, Not Just Total Rainfall

For farmers, the timing of rainfall can be as important as the seasonal total. Even if the country eventually records near-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells during sowing can force repeated planting, increase seed costs and reduce yields.

Economists are also closely monitoring the situation because weaker monsoon rainfall affects food production, reservoir levels, rural incomes and ultimately inflation.

The good news is that India’s agriculture is more resilient today than it was during earlier droughts. Irrigation coverage has expanded significantly over the past decade, and reservoir storage entering this monsoon season was healthier than during several previous drought years. These factors could cushion the impact even if rainfall remains below normal.

What Happens Next?

The next two to three weeks are likely to determine whether 2026 joins the list of India’s major drought years or becomes another example of a delayed monsoon that eventually recovered. A strong revival during late June and July could still erase much of the current deficit. But if the monsoon continues to remain sluggish through July, the risks to agriculture, food prices and water security will rise sharply.

About the Author

Pragati Ratti

Pragati is a News Editor at news18.com. Having headed the Business and Viral sections, Pragati now ideates, writes and edits long-form features and articles on national and global affairs. She ensures...Read More

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