IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon: Will Food Prices Rise? Will It Impact Your Kitchen Budget?

Last Updated:April 14, 2026, 14:17 IST

India Monsoon 2026: What has IMD predicted? Should you be worried? Will it impact your household budget?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026, predicting rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This is the lowest initial forecast in nearly three decades and poses a significant risk to food prices, which have already begun to edge higher.

Will it impact food prices? News18 explains.

MONSOON 2026: WHAT DID IMD PREDICT?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a below-normal monsoon for the upcoming 2026 season. This is the first time in three years that the weather office has issued such a forecast.

Rainfall is projected at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of 5%. The IMD considers rainfall between 90% and 95% of the LPA as “below normal." The LPA for the four-month season (June–September) is benchmarked at 87 cm.

There is a 31% chance of “below-normal" rains and a 35% chance of “deficient" rainfall (less than 90% of LPA), according to the Press Information Bureau and other reports.

The rainfall deficit is not expected to be uniform across the country:

Below Normal: Most parts of the country, particularly Central and Western India, as well as states like Odisha, are likely to see less-than-average rain.

Normal to Above Normal: Some areas in the Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India may still receive regular or higher rainfall.

Why the outlook?

• El Niño Risks: The main reason for this outlook is the likely development of El Niño conditions starting around June. Historically, El Niño is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
• The IMD noted two factors that could partially offset El Niño’s impact. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is likely to develop toward the end of the season, which usually brings more rain. Also, below-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia earlier this year is typically a favourable sign for the Indian monsoon.

BELOW-NORMAL MONSOON PREDICTION: WILL FOOD PRICES SURGE?

While immediate food inflation remains manageable at 3.87% (March 2026), experts warn that a subpar monsoon could drive Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation above 4.5% to 5% later this year, according to Reuters and other reports.

Vulnerable Commodities: Crops heavily dependent on rain, such as pulses (dal), oilseeds, and paddy (rice), are at the highest risk of price hikes due to potential yield losses.

Dual-Threat Inflation: Rising food costs are colliding with higher input costs (fertilisers and energy) driven by global conflicts, creating a “sombre outlook" for household budgets.

Import Pressure: A deficit may increase India’s reliance on expensive edible oil imports and limit sugar exports, further tightening domestic supplies.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOUR KITCHEN BUDGET?

• Monthly Grocery Bills: You may see a gradual increase in the cost of staples like rice and lentils starting in the July-September quarter, as the impact of lower rainfall becomes visible in crop arrivals.
• Cooking Costs: Beyond food, LPG (cooking gas) prices have already seen hikes in March, which is already trickling down into higher restaurant and prepared-food costs.
• Vegetable Volatility: While currently stable, perishables remain highly sensitive to local weather disruptions and transport costs, say reports.

MONSOON CRITICAL

The monsoon’s performance will be critical between July and September, when El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen.

SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?

The India Meteorological Department will issue an updated outlook in the last week of May 2026. Households may consider stocking non-perishables like pulses and oil before the peak impact of the monsoon deficit hits in late 2026.

KEY FAQs

Will a below-normal monsoon increase food prices?

It can push prices up, especially for vegetables, pulses, and cereals, if crop output is affected.

Which food items are most likely to get expensive?

Staples like rice, pulses, edible oils, and vegetables are most sensitive to weak rainfall.

Will it significantly impact household kitchen budgets?

A prolonged weak monsoon can raise monthly food expenses, but government buffers and imports may help limit sharp spikes.

With agency inputs

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