In Bengal, Exit Polls Show A Close TMC-BJP Race. Can Women Voters Tip The Balance?

Last Updated:April 30, 2026, 14:04 IST

In the 2026 elections, women not just outnumbered men but also broke all previous turnout records at 93.24 per cent

West Bengal could be headed for a tightly contested verdict, with exit polls indicating a strong showing by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a resilient challenge from the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Amid this, one trend stands out clearly—women voters have turned out in record numbers and could prove decisive in shaping the outcome.

All 294 seats of the West Bengal Legislative Assembly went for polls in two phases, and the results will be declared on May 4.

Before heading for the voting pattern, let’s understand what the exit polls have predicted for the state. The majority mark in the state is 148 for a party to form a government comfortably. Most exit polls suggest a tight contest, with BJP ahead in several projections.

Chanakya Strategies projected the BJP winning 150-160 seats, while TMC would win 30-40 seats and others are getting six to 10 seats. Matrize predicted BJP getting 146-161 seats, while TMC will get 125-140 seats and others 6-10 seats. JVC projected that BJP would get 138-159 seats and TMC 131-152 seats, Congress 0-2 seats, and Left parties 0-1 seats. The P-Marq exit poll projected 150-175 seats for BJP, 118-138 for TMC and 2-6 for others. People Pulse projected 95-100 seats for BJP, 177-187 seats for TMC, 1-3 seats for Congress and 0-1 seats for Left parties. Poll Diary exit poll, meanwhile, projected 142-147 seats for BJP, 99-127 for TMC, 3-5 for Congress, 2-3 for Left parties and 0-1 for others.

The polls have not provided any gender-wise breakdown but past data shows a consistent pattern of rising female participation.

What’s On Women’s Minds This Time?

Just like most parts of India, West Bengal too had a male-dominated voting pattern. But in 2011, the pattern changed and women voters took control as they outnumbered men for the first time in the state’s history. The result: higher voter turnout in the state coincided with Mamata Banerjee becoming the first female chief minister.

Since then, there was no looking back for women and Banerjee in the state. Female voters outnumbered men in 2016 and 2021 as well and Banerjee continued her control.

In the 2026 elections, women not just outnumbered men but also broke all previous turnout records at 93.24 per cent. That means for every 100 eligible female voters in the state, almost 94 stepped out to vote. In the case of men, this was about 92.

In 2011, women turnout was 84.45 per cent—a record till Wednesday. Even as women outnumbered men in 2016 and 2021, the turnout was lower than 2011. What has changed in 2026 is that women have surpassed all previous records. The result? Counting of votes on May 4 will reveal if women are still standing with Banerjee or if they have changed sides.

In any case, ruling or opposition, BJP is set to improve on its past performance, as per the exit polls.

Past Results

TMC won 184 seats in 2011, up from 30 seats in 2006. TMC in 2011 bagged 38.93 per cent of the total votes, up from 26.64 per cent in 2006.

In Mamata Banerjee’s second term in 2016, the party’s vote shares increased to 44.91 per cent (211 seats). As she took charge of the state for the third consecutive term in 2021, the vote share of TMC increased to 47.9 per cent (215 seats), data from the Election Commission suggests.

In 2011, Trinamool got 1.85 crore votes. The number increased to 2.45 crore votes in 2016. In 2021, this number reached 2.87 crore—an increase of 54.92 percent since 2011.

After 2016, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took over the Left parties and Congress and became the primary opposition party in the state. From three seats (10.16 per cent vote share) in 2016, BJP won 77 seats in 2021 with vote share touching 38.15 per cent.

Whether this unprecedented mobilisation of women voters strengthens the incumbent or signals a shift will only be clear on May 4. What is certain, however, is that women are no longer just participants in Bengal’s elections; they are central to how outcomes are shaped.

News elections In Bengal, Exit Polls Show A Close TMC-BJP Race. Can Women Voters Tip The Balance?

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