India must diversify energy sources as oil markets turn volatile, says former Deputy NSA Pankaj Saran

Former Deputy National Security Adviser Pankaj Saran on Wednesday (March 11, 2026) warned that rising volatility in global oil prices amid tensions linked to the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict could have significant economic implications for India if the situation persists.

Also read: West Asia war updates on March 11, 2026

Speaking on the sidelines of the Synergia Conclave 2026 in New Delhi, Mr. Saran said oil prices have been “shooting up and down” and the coming days will be important to assess the trend. However, he stressed that the larger concern lies in the medium- and long-term impact.

According to him, any sustained increase in crude prices could affect India’s current account deficit and balance of payments, as nearly 90% of the country’s energy imports are paid for in U.S. dollars. Higher oil prices, he noted, would also have downstream effects on inflation and economic growth.

Economic consequences

“If the spike lasts only a few days or weeks, the impact may be manageable. But if it continues for longer, it will certainly have economic consequences,” he said, pointing out that smaller energy-importing economies such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka are already feeling the strain.

Mr. Saran said that India is relatively better positioned to absorb short-term shocks due to its strategic petroleum reserves but emphasised the importance of diversifying sources of oil imports beyond the Gulf. He added that India will need to maintain stable energy supplies by working with major producers such as Russia, the United States, and Gulf countries, while also competing with major importers like China during periods of tight supply.

He also stressed the need to reduce tensions in the region, noting that the ongoing military campaign involving the United States and Iran has created a highly volatile environment. Maintaining diplomatic communication channels, he said, will be crucial to ensure that the conflict does not escalate further.

Uncertain global order

The remarks came as the 10th edition of the Synergia Conclave 2026 opened in New Delhi, bringing together more than 200 policymakers, defence leaders, diplomats, intelligence officials, and technology experts for three days of discussions on geopolitics, security, and emerging technologies.

Organised by the Synergia Foundation, the conclave has emerged over the past decade as a prominent platform for dialogue at the intersection of security, technology, and global strategic affairs.

During the discussions, former Research and Analysis Wing director A.B. Mathur highlighted the deep uncertainty in the global order marked by multiple conflicts, shifting alliances, and rapid technological change. Former Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed also emphasised the need for economic resilience in smaller states, warning that high debt burdens can push vulnerable economies to seek financial support from multiple geopolitical partners.

The day concluded with the Futurecraft Forum, featuring a dialogue between Synergia Advisory Board chairman M.K. Narayanan and former Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo on evolving geopolitical dynamics and regional cooperation.