Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza emerging as surprise No. 1 pick candidate for 2026 NFL Draft

When Indiana kicks off its season on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. against Old Dominion at Merchants Bank Field inside Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, all eyes will be on quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

The 6-foot-5 junior from Miami, Florida, made the bold decision to transfer from Cal last offseason. Now, with Indiana ranked No. 20 and surrounded by one of the deepest supporting casts in the Big Ten, Mendoza is already drawing attention as a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Fernando Mendoza’s transfer from Cal to Indiana could define his NFL Draft

Earlier this week, CBS Sports’ draft analyst Mike Renner released an updated 2026 mock draft that stunned many by projecting Mendoza as the top pick to the Cleveland Browns. Renner explained, “The Browns will almost certainly be going quarterback if they end up picking No.

1 overall, and with Arch Manning expected to return to school, Fernando Mendoza feels like the best fit of the bunch for head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense (should the two-time NFL Coach of the Year be retained). He’s got a plus NFL arm paired with quick decision-making and tight-window accuracy.”

Renner currently ranks Mendoza as the No. 13 overall prospect and the No. 3 quarterback, sitting behind Texas’ Arch Manning and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier.

Following Mendoza are Penn State’s Drew Allar, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.

What Fernando Mendoza’s 2025 season means for the 2026 NFL Draft

Fernando Mendoza arrives at Indiana after two seasons of carrying Cal’s offense. In 2023, he threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns against six interceptions in 11 games. Reflecting on his transfer, Mendoza said, “It was taking a chance on myself leaving Cal in order to chase that development. (Cignetti)’s an offensive mind, he holds everyone to a high standard and his program always wins.”That “Cignetti” is Curt Cignetti, Indiana’s new head coach, who has earned a reputation for elevating quarterbacks. ESPN’s Jordan Reid noted Mendoza’s fit in the system, giving him a 12% chance of going No. 1 overall in next year’s draft: Mendoza’s move from Cal to Indiana places him in a system that has historically given quarterbacks room to thrive. Under head coach Curt Cignetti, signal-callers have often seen their draft stock rise, and Mendoza, with his 6-foot-5 frame and polished arm talent, has the tools to aim even higher than those who came before him.An NFC area scout added, “I really liked Mendoza’s tape. He’s the one to circle that could be a bigger riser, and Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.”

Indiana Hoosiers roster loaded with talent to support quarterback Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza will not have to carry the Hoosiers alone. Indiana enters the season stocked with talent, including wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher, cornerback D’Angelo Ponds, long snapper Mark Langston, wide receiver Makai Jackson, and running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black.

Mendoza himself was named to multiple preseason award watchlists, setting the stage for what could be a breakout year.The journey from Cal to Indiana was a leap of faith, but early signs suggest Mendoza may have positioned himself perfectly. Ranked No. 13 on Renner’s overall board but already in the conversation for the top spot, his season opener on Saturday provides the first glimpse of whether the hype can match the production. For Fernando Mendoza, the chase for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft starts now.Also Read: Ilya Solovyov, Yan Kuznetsov, and Jeremie Poirier: Are these the next big names on the Calgary Flames’ blue line in 2025-26?