Iran Faces Staggering Losses, But Still Wants Trump To Blink First: Decoding Tehran’s Response

Last Updated:April 26, 2026, 13:07 IST

While Iran faces economic strangulation, its leaders appear to be gambling that global energy shock & domestic political pressure will force US to back down, News18 explains

The United States and Iran remain locked in a high-stakes “game of chicken" over a dual maritime blockade and a stalled peace process. While Tehran faces crippling economic strangulation, its leaders appear to be gambling that the global energy shock and domestic political pressure will eventually force President Donald Trump to back down first.

News18 explains.

THE ‘DUAL BLOCKADE’ STANDOFF

CNN analysed how the conflict has evolved into a mutual economic siege centered on the Strait of Hormuz:

• Since April 13, the US has maintained a naval blockade on all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports. Trump has stated the blockade will remain until Iran agrees to a “real deal".
• Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most vital oil chokehold—demanding the release of $274 billion (11 trillion riyals) in frozen assets.
• Strait traffic has dropped by roughly 97%, sending global fuel and fertiliser prices soaring, according to Al Jazeera and other reports.

WHY IRAN THINKS TRUMP WILL “BLINK"

Despite a looming oil storage crisis and surging domestic unemployment, Tehran’s leadership is betting on several external pressures to weaken the US position, according to CNN.

Iran believes the US economy cannot tolerate a prolonged closure of the Strait, especially as rising gas prices fuel domestic backlash. Iranian officials calculate that Trump is under pressure to secure a win before the upcoming US midterms.

Recent reports indicate internal policy disputes in Washington and growing frustration from NATO allies, such as Spain and the UK, over the war’s economic toll.

Analysts note that Trump’s rhetoric often softens just before global markets open, suggesting a “psychological operation" where de-escalation is timed to prevent a total market collapse. Despite initial demands for “unconditional surrender," Trump has extended several ceasefires, notably at the request of Pakistan, which some observers interpret as a mask for a lack of a clear exit strategy.

The resignation of high-level officials, like Navy Secretary John Phelan in early April, suggests deep divisions within the US administration between “Maximum Pressure" hawks and pragmatists worried about a long-term quagmire.

IMPACT FOR IRAN

The cost for Iran is staggering. The economy is projected to shrink by 10% this year. Infrastructure damage to steel mills and power grids has led to widespread layoffs, and a persistent internet blackout has crippled the digital economy, disproportionately affecting self-employed women and small businesses.

WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATE OF NEGOTIATIONS?

Diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan have largely stalled:

• On April 25, Trump abruptly cancelled a planned trip to Islamabad by envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, calling the process a “waste of time".
• Trump has extended a tenuous ceasefire indefinitely but warned that he may resume military strikes on Iranian infrastructure—including power plants and bridges—if a deal is not reached quickly.
• The US is demanding “zero enrichment" of uranium and an end to proxy funding. Iran’s 10-point proposal includes war reparations and a full US military withdrawal from the region.
• Both sides currently view time as their ally. Trump believes his “maximum pressure" blockade will eventually cause a regime collapse, while Iran believes its control of the world’s energy pulse will break Western resolve first.
• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian conveyed to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that Iran will not enter into negotiations under pressure, threats, and siege, Mehr News Agency reported on Sunday.
• Shortly after concluding his visit to Pakistan, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said he conveyed to Islamabad Tehran’s position concerning a “workable framework" to end the war.

KEY FAQs

Why is Iran “suffering" in the standoff?

Because a US-led blockade, strikes, and sanctions are squeezing its economy—hurting oil exports, raising prices, and increasing domestic pressure.

Why might Iran think Donald Trump will “blink" first?

Tehran believes it can endure hardship longer, while Trump faces pressure from oil prices, markets, and upcoming elections.

Has there been any sign of the US softening?

Yes, temporary ceasefires and mixed signals from Washington are seen by Iran as signs that the US may step back under pressure.

With agency inputs

News explainers Iran Faces Staggering Losses, But Still Wants Trump To Blink First: Decoding Tehran’s Response

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