Is Iran Exporting More Oil Now Because It Controls Strait Of Hormuz? What Data Shows

Last Updated:March 11, 2026, 21:50 IST

Iran's export levels can vary week to week but the recent increase shows that, unlike other producers, its shipments are unimpeded.

Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, even as it has effectively closed the strategic waterway to the rest of the region’s oil producers. Since the war started on February 28, seven tankers have loaded oil off the Iranian coast, according to tanker-tracking firm Kpler. Over the past six days, tankers have loaded a daily average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil- higher than the 2 million barrels a day Iran exported in February.

Iran’s export levels can vary week to week but the recent increase shows that, unlike other producers, its shipments are unimpeded and that China hasn’t lost its appetite for Tehran’s crude.

What Is Happening To Other Oil Producers?

As Gulf Arab oil producers from Saudi Arabia to Iraq cut production and scramble for new routes that bypass the strait, Iran is conducting business as usual, according to Kpler- throwing a financial lifeline to Tehran as it comes under sustained attack from the US and Israel. If the strait remains blocked for two weeks, Gulf oil supplies could be cut by about 3.8 million barrels a day, according to JPMorgan, representing more than 3% of global production.

How Has Iran Shut Hormuz Strait?

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to attack any ship trying to cross the strait since the US and Israel launched airstrikes at the start of the conflict, scaring off vessels carrying oil and goods between the wider world and the Persian Gulf, where about a third of global oil production takes place. Iran has fired drones and missiles at Gulf Arab oil producers and warned it would set fire to ships crossing the strait.

“Almost all ships crossing the Strait are linked to Iran or China," said Christopher Long, head of intelligence at UK maritime security company Neptune P2P Group, adding, “We are advising all shippers not to cross."

Who Is Still Getting Through?

Much of the Iranian oil moving across the strait appears to be headed for China on tankers that are part of the so-called shadow fleet- old vessels used by Iran and Russia, often sanctioned by the US, to covertly ship crude. Since the war began, around 15 ships have crossed the strait, with most being shadow-fleet vessels moving Iranian oil to China and India, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Many are small Chinese tankers that make their presence known to the Revolutionary Guard through loudspeakers and shortwave radio.

What Trump Said?

Markets have whipsawed in recent days, with oil prices near $120 a barrel on Monday before sliding below $80 on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump said the war would end “very soon."

Trump last week announced plans to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but no such assistance has materialised so far. Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Revolutionary Guard navy, warned against such escorts.

“Any passage of the US fleet and its allies will be halted by the net of Iranian missiles and suicide drones," he said. Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said only military escorts, a US-Israeli ceasefire or an Iranian capitulation would prompt commercial shippers to resume transits.

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