IT biz to grow 6.1% in FY26 despite AI headwinds

MUMBAI: Navigating twin disruptions - intensifying geopolitical uncertainty and the rapid rise of AI-native competitors - India's technology industry is leaning on its strengths of scale, engineering depth and delivery resilience.

Despite AI-led disruption that rattled stock prices, India's tech sector is on track to grow 6.1% to $315 billion in FY26, according to Nasscom.The growth reflects steady demand across segments even as enterprises recalibrate spending priorities. The 2026 revenue mix underscores the industry's diversified base: IT services at $149 billion, BPM at $59 billion, ER&D (engineering R&D) at $63 billion, software products at $23 billion and hardware at $21 billion.

Indian IT exports are projected to rise 5.6% year on year to $246 billion in FY26, up from $233 billion in FY25.Nasscom president Rajesh Nambiar described FY25 and FY26 as a structural transition phase for the industry. While 2025 was marked by global economic caution and geopolitical shifts, he said technology spending was not cut - it was redirected. Enterprises prioritised resilience, productivity and AI-led transformation over discretionary expansion.

AI, he said, moved from experimentation to execution. "Industry AI revenue is estimated at $10-$12 billion in FY26, contributing roughly 3-4% of overall industry revenue, and up to 5-6% for some companies.

AI is embedded in most enterprise proposals today," he said at the Nasscom Technology Leadership Forum (NTLF) 2026 in Mumbai. Around 70% of the top 25 providers acquired AI-native capabilities, 85% now have agent platforms, and 35%-40% offer verticalised AI solutions.