JD Vance Vs Marco Rubio: Has Trump Already Chosen His 2028 Successor?

Last Updated:July 08, 2026, 14:11 IST

JD Vance's growing influence inside the White House has reignited debate over who will carry the MAGA mantle after Donald Trump.

US Vice President JD Vance appears to be pulling ahead in the race to become Donald Trump’s political heir for 2028.

While the Republican presidential race is still two years away and Trump has made no formal endorsement, recent reports suggest the president has grown increasingly impressed with his deputy’s performance, fuelling speculation that Vance has emerged as the leading heir to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.

According to Axios, Trump, who had for months informally compared Vance with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in conversations with advisers, has largely stopped weighing the two against each other. One person familiar with those discussions told the outlet: “POTUS isn’t asking, ‘JD or Marco?’ anymore. He’s no longer asking, ‘How’s JD doing?’ He’s now saying, ‘JD looks great, right?'"

Another senior Trump adviser told Axios, “JD is earning it, and Trump sees it," adding that Rubio “wasn’t planning to run anyway, and he’d be even less likely to do so now."

Why Has JD Vance’s Standing Risen?

Several developments over the past few months have helped elevate Vance’s profile inside the Trump administration and among Republican voters.

Iran Diplomacy

According to Axios, many inside the White House view mid-June as the turning point. Vance, along with presidential envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, helped broker a memorandum of understanding with Iran aimed at advancing a peace initiative after months of conflict in the Middle East.

The diplomatic breakthrough significantly increased Vance’s visibility within the administration and gave him one of the highest-profile foreign policy roles of his vice presidency.

The timing proved especially favourable. Just a day before the agreement, Vance released his new book, Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith. Already scheduled to embark on a nationwide book tour, he suddenly found himself discussing both his memoir and the administration’s diplomatic efforts, further amplifying his public profile.

A Media Blitz That Caught Trump’s Attention

Vance also embarked on an unusually aggressive media campaign throughout June.

Axios reported that he gave 33 interviews in a single month, appearing on conservative podcasts, White House press briefings and mainstream television programmes, including HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher and ABC’s The View.

Although Trump is not known to watch The View, one adviser told Axios: “The president doesn’t watch ‘The View.’ But he saw the clips and loved what he saw."

The media appearances allowed Vance to become one of the administration’s most visible public defenders at a time when debates over Iran, NATO and US foreign policy dominated headlines.

Growing Political Organisation

Away from Washington, Vance has also strengthened his political network.

According to Axios, he has helped raise around $70 million for the Republican National Committee, expanding a donor network that could prove invaluable should he decide to run for president.

Campaign infrastructure also appears to be developing around him. One Rubio ally told Axios: “Marco doesn’t have pipe hitters. Vance does," referring to the network of political operatives and consultants already aligned with the vice president.

What Do The Polls Say?

Nationally, Vance remains a polarising political figure. His overall favourability among Americans remains underwater, roughly comparable to Trump’s.

Within the Republican Party, however, the picture looks very different.

Polling released by Navigator Research, a Democrat-aligned firm, placed Vance’s net favourability among Republicans at 62 per cent, just behind Trump’s 65 per cent and well ahead of Rubio’s 51 per cent.

Axios also reported that Vance currently leads other potential Republican contenders in both national and early-state polling, reinforcing the perception that he has become the strongest early favourite if he chooses to run in 2028.

Is Marco Rubio Out Of The Running?

Not entirely, but he appears to be behind Vance in the early 2028 conversation.

Rubio remains one of the Republican Party’s most prominent figures and, as Secretary of State, holds a powerful foreign policy role in the Trump administration. That gives him visibility and keeps him somewhat removed from the administration’s more divisive domestic battles.

He could also still have political advantages of his own. A major breakthrough on Cuba, an issue closely tied to Rubio’s career, could strengthen his foreign policy credentials and play well in Florida’s influential Cuban-American community. As a Spanish-speaking son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio may also be better placed than some Republicans to appeal to Latino voters.

But the bigger problem for Rubio is preparation. According to Axios, people close to him say he has little interest in mounting a presidential campaign. Unlike Vance, he has not built the kind of political operation, donor network and campaign machinery usually needed for a serious White House run.

What Could Still Complicate Vance’s Rise

Vance’s current advantage depends heavily on two things that can change quickly: Trump’s approval and the political success of the administration’s biggest decisions.

Iran is the clearest example. Vance’s role in the tentative peace effort has helped raise his profile, but it also means he is closely tied to its outcome. If the deal holds, it strengthens his case as a serious foreign policy figure. If it fails or angers key Republican constituencies, it could become a liability. Trump himself joked about that risk last month, saying: “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD."

That tension is already visible on the Israel front. Axios reported that Vance’s role in the Iran deal and his criticism of right-wing Israeli politicians have upset some pro-Israel conservatives, who would prefer Rubio to run against him. This matters because Rubio is seen as more aligned with the traditional Republican foreign policy establishment.

Vance has also faced criticism over his economic views. Axios reported that the head of the conservative Club for Growth criticised his position on the role of government in business, arguing that he was not sufficiently supportive of free markets.

Vance’s Silicon Valley links could also become a vulnerability. The Independent noted that his association with billionaire investor Peter Thiel and his past as a venture capitalist could become politically awkward if issues such as AI-linked layoffs, housing costs or anger at Big Tech become sharper campaign issues by 2028.

The biggest uncertainty, however, is Trump. Vance’s rise depends heavily on the president continuing to see him as the right successor. Trump has often elevated allies quickly and cooled on them just as fast.

What Has Vance Said About 2028?

Publicly, Vance has consistently played down speculation about his political future.

Speaking in June, he said discussions about a presidential bid would come later.

“Usha and I will absolutely sit down and talk about what comes next for our family," Vance said. “The way I make decisions is, I try not to make them until I absolutely must."

He has repeatedly argued that the administration’s immediate priority should be governing rather than campaigning.

“If we do a good job in 2025 and 2026, then we can talk about the politics in 2027," Vance said last year. “I really think the American people are so fed up with folks who are already running for the next job, seven months into the current one."

About the Author

Karishma Jain

Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follo...Read More

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