‘June Was 5th Driest, Below-Normal Rain Likely In July Too’: Monsoon May Reach Delhi, Haryana In 2-3 Days

Last Updated:June 30, 2026, 18:27 IST

Monsoon is running behind schedule and is likely to enter Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi & Punjab, and some parts of Rajasthan in the next 2-3 days, says IMD

After the fifth driest June rainfall since 1901, India is expected to witness below normal rainfall in July as well, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

This is concerning as July is the rainiest month of the four-month monsoon season, and quite critical for the rain-fed Kharif crops. This comes after IMD’s initial forecast of below normal rainfall this monsoon due to the formation of El Niño – nearly 90% of the long period average.

An ocean phenomenon, El Niño is highly unfavourable to the seasonal rain and linked to droughts. India has already identified around 305 most vulnerable districts which are likely to be affected due to less rain.

“There could be certain states where the water stress could be high, and the agricultural ministry has already prepared action plans to manage the situation. We are also issuing advisory to the farmers," said Dr M Mohapatra, IMD chief.

June report

June ended with a monthly rainfall deficit of nearly 40 per cent below the long period average. 2009 holds the record for the lowest rainfall in June, followed by 1905, 2014 and 1926. However, the weather department said that East and Northeast India recorded its lowest-ever rainfall due to the slow process of the monsoon. The monsoon progressed very slowly after making its onset over Kerala, covering most cities like Mumbai, Surat nearly ten days later than usual.

As of June 30, the monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand & Bihar, some parts of Uttar Pradesh, most parts of Uttarakhand, and some parts of Himachal Pradesh & Ladakh.

Monsoon forecast downgraded

It is likely to advance into more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, entire Daman & Diu, remaining parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh, entire Jammu & Kashmir, most parts of Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and Punjab, and some parts of Rajasthan during the next 2-3 days.

The IMD has downgraded the forecast for southwest monsoon from 92% to 90% of the long-period average, signalling a higher risk of below-normal rainfall over India this June to September. The forecast carried a model error of +/- 4%.

Shadow of El Niño

The seasonal rain is extremely crucial as it provides over 70% of the annual rainfall in the country during June to September. However, this year’s season began under the shadow of El Niño which is expected to weaken its strength, and lead to below par rains over the country.

According to the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño has already formed as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and is expected to intensify further.

“There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," it said in its latest advisory.

About the Author

Srishti Choudhary

Srishti Choudhary, Senior Assistant Editor at CNN-News18 specializes in science, environment, and climate change reporting. With over a decade of extensive field experience, she has brought incisive g...Read More

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