Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: Elathur, a red bastion, now faces a competitive race

Well before Kerala formally slipped into election mode, the Elathur constituency in Kozhikode had already emerged as an early flashpoint. In a repeat of what happened five years ago, the controversy was triggered by incumbent MLA and Forests and Wildlife Minister A.K. Saseendran of the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) [NCP(SP)], a constituent of the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), signalling his intent to seek a fourth consecutive term, setting off an intense factional tussle within the party’s district unit.

The NCP(SP)’s Kozhikode district committee, backed by a majority of mandalam committees, opposed renominating Mr. Saseendran and instead pushed for district president Mukkom Mohammed as an alternative. In contrast, those loyal to Mr. Saseendran rallied behind him.

With the State leadership unable to broker a compromise, the issue escalated to the party’s central leadership, which, like in 2021, eventually settled the matter by reaffirming Mr. Saseendran’s candidature last week. However, the formal decision did little to immediately quell internal dissent, necessitating further intervention. It was only after NCP(SP) national working president P.C. Chacko convened a district-level meeting earlier this week that the leadership declared the rift resolved, projecting a “unified” front ahead of the polls.

As the election approaches, the Elathur contest is increasingly being shaped by a convergence of political and structural factors. Foremost among these is whether Mr. Saseendran can effectively navigate the after-effects of intra-party discord and ensure organisational cohesion at the grassroots level. This challenge is compounded by indications of a broader voter appetite for change after successive terms and the possibility of anti-incumbency against the LDF.

That said, the Elathur constituency has traditionally been regarded as a Left stronghold and the CPI(M)’s entrenched organisational network could offer Mr. Saseendran a structural advantage. Despite being considered a red bastion, the seat has consistently been allotted to the NCP(SP) since its formation in 2008. Mr. Saseendran has successfully defended the constituency in three consecutive elections- 2011, 2016, and 2021.

However, sensing an opportunity, the Congress appears to be positioning itself to capitalise on these fault lines by fielding Vidya Balakrishnan, a familiar face, raising the prospect of a more competitive contest. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF)’s improved showing in the recent local body elections also bolstered its confidence. Unlike in 2021, when seat-sharing arrangements triggered discontent among Congress workers, the UDF this time enters the fray with relatively greater organisational clarity.

The segment has a demographic profile in which about 75% of the population is Hindu, almost evenly split between Thiyya and Nair communities, while over 20% belong to the Muslim community. It comprises six Kozhikode Corporation divisions and six grama panchayats, most of which have historically tilted towards the LDF.

In last year’s three-tier local body elections, the LDF won Chettikulam, Eranhikkal, Puthur, Mokavur and Puthiyappa divisions in the civic body as well as Chelannur and Kakkodi grama panchayats. The UDF emerged victorious in Elathur division and Kakkur, Kuruvattur and Thalakkulathur local bodies, while Nanmanda panchayat remained evenly balanced between the two fronts. These outcomes point to a more competitive contest than in previous Assembly elections.

Adding another layer to the contest is the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which has been working to expand its presence in select pockets. In the 2021 Assembly election, the BJP secured over 32,000 votes, accounting for 19.6% of the total vote share. With T. Devadas as its candidate this time, the BJP is aiming to further consolidate this base. While not a primary contender, its performance could prove consequential by influencing vote splits and, in turn, the final outcome.