Kerala Assembly Elections: IUML, INL clash as equations shift in Kozhikode South

In the beginning of summer five years ago, on the eve of the Assembly polls, the India Union Muslim League (IUML) leadership was cudgelling its brains to wrest back its perceived stronghold, Koduvally, lost to the party’s dissident, Karat Razak, by a wafer-thin margin of 573 votes.

The party finally resolved to deploy its heavyweight and widely popular leader, M.K. Muneer, from Kozhikode South, a constituency he had held for two consecutive terms, to Koduvally, in a bid to reclaim it. The move also helped quell criticism of the party’s gender disparity with a surprise, offering the seat to Vanita League leader Noorbina Rasheed, thus ending a drought for a party that had not nominated a woman in Assembly polls for a quarter of a century.

The rest, as they say, is electoral history. Dr. Muneer captured Koduvally, but Ms. Rasheed fell to Indian National League (INL) national general secretary Ahammad Devarkovil in Kozhikode South, losing by a commanding margin of over 12,000 votes.

The old rivals now find themselves back on the electoral stage, though the dynamics have shifted considerably. Once dismissed as a lame duck, Mr. Devarkovil went on to become a Minister for the first two and a half years of the Pinarayi Vijayan government. He has now struck a more confident and responsible chord with voters, making the contest more interesting, with a direct head-to-head between the INL and the IUML.

Significantly, this time the playbook is also different. The IUML has made a generational shift by nominating a fresh face V.K. Faisal Babu, national general secretary of the Muslim Youth League.

Kozhikode South is a constituency of urban character like Kozhikode North encompassing 23 divisions of the Kozhikode Corporation. Within its bounds lie the iconic S.M. Street, the Kallai river and its storied timber village, the Kuttichira Mishkal Mosque, the Tali Shiva Temple, Kozhikode Beach, the teeming Valiyangadi market, and long-established residential neighbourhoods such as Chalappuram. It is a Muslim-majority constituency, with the community accounting for upwards of 60% of the population.

Beyond the victories of Dr. Muneer in 2011 and 2016, the Assembly segment has also returned candidates of the Congress and the CPI(M). Interestingly, IUML State general secretary P.M.A. Salam , then affiliated with the INL, won from here in 2006.

Should the LDF succeed in holding together its 2021 coalition of coastal voters and segments of the merchant class, Mr. Devarkovil is well placed to secure a second successive victory.

At the same time, if the IUML manages to consolidate the minority vote that splintered in 2021 and harness growing urban discontent over infrastructure and anti-incumbency sentiment, Mr. Faisal Babu may yet hold the advantage in reclaiming the seat.

As for the BJP’s performance, the NDA has fielded T. Raneesh, a local councillor. In 2021, the BJP secured 20.89% of the vote. If Mr. Raneesh polls above 25,000 votes, the winner’s margin will likely drop substantially, making it one of the closest victories in the State.