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The battle lines in Kerala for the 2026 Assembly elections have been drawn, and the impending poll campaign may have the makings of a close race.
The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), weighed down by 10 years of incumbency, is seeking to defy the odds and return to power for a third consecutive term. It is also battling dissidents.
Out of power for two consecutive terms, the polls pose an existential threat to the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). However, a remarkable performance in the 2025 local body elections has put a spring in the UDF’s step.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) draws strength from its show in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and it helming the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation. The BJP seeks to end what it perceives as the “bane of LDF-UDF revolving door politics” in Kerala by reopening an account in the Assembly with a better show.
Crisis away from home
The polls will be fought under the shadow of the war in West Asia and the economic uncertainty caused by looming fuel shortages. The families of an estimated 3.5 million Keralites employed in the Gulf comprise a significant section of the electorate in Kerala, and their concerns could have an impact on the election.
The conflict, including the attacks on Gaza, may also influence, in some measure, the voting behaviour of the sizeable Muslim community in Kerala, who comprise an estimated 26.56% of the population as per the 2011 Census.
Minority votes
The LDF has consistently positioned itself as the champion of Palestine and censured the BJP-led Central government’s “failure” to condemn the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, and lately, the Muslim-dominated quarters in Lebanon.
The LDF and UDF calculus seems centred on the conjecture that the BJP’s strong showing in at least 30 Assembly constituencies in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and its performance in several State elections might push the Muslim community towards the traditional fronts. Notably, the Jamaat-e-Islami Hind (Kerala), though not a sizeable electoral force, has urged Muslims to deny the BJP electoral space in Kerala.
Poll expectations
The LDF will bank on its track record in social welfare and development. As many as 62 lakh voters, chiefly the elderly, widows, differently abled persons, and agricultural labourers, draw a monthly pension of ₹2,000. The UDF has sought to outmatch the LDF by promising to hike the dole to ₹3,000 if voted to power.
The BJP believes that the LDF’s social welfare pitch alone will not sway the middle-class voters. Both BJP and UDF will put to intense scrutiny the LDF’s claims of large-scale investment, robust business environment, critical infrastructure development, job creation, limiting inflation, improving public healthcare, providing free housing and mitigating the cost of living.
Multiple factors
Several undercurrents could influence the outcome of this election. The LDF and Congress fear that the BJP’s inroads into the influential Nair and Ezhava Hindu communities could dent their respective strongholds. The BJP’s overtures to Christians, particularly to Church-backed settler farmers in the hill districts, have influenced the LDF and UDF’s strategising.
Human-wildlife conflict, entry of women into Sabarimala and the gold theft case, dissent in coalition ranks over candidate selection and seat sharing, the SIR and accusations of disenfranchisement of anti-NDA voters will keep the pot boiling till the polls.
Key contests
The State is also bracing for high-profile contests. Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president Sunny Joseph is likely to face off against former Health Minister K. K. Shailaja in Peravoor, a CPI(M) stronghold in Kannur. BJP State president Rajeev Chandrasekhar is contesting against CPI(M) State Committee member and Education Minister V. Sivankutty in Nemom, Thiruvananthapuram.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Leader of the Opposition V. D. Satheesan are contesting from Dharmadom (Kannur) and Paravur (Ernakulam), respectively. Former Union Minister V. Muraleedharan will take on CPI(M) State committee member and former Devaswom Minister Kadakampally Surendran in Kazhakkoottam Assembly constituency in Thiruvananthapuram.
Former PWD Minister G. Sudhakaran, who left the CPI(M) after being denied a seat citing age and term limit, is contesting against CPI(M) sitting MLA H. Salam, in Ambalappuzha, with UDF support. Kerala Congress (M) chairperson Jose K. Mani is contesting from Pala in Kottayam, a seat long held by his father, the late K. M. Mani, but where Mr. Jose was defeated by UDF’s Mani C. Kappan in 2021.
CPI(M) Kannur district secretariat member T. K. Govindan is contesting as an independent from Taliparamba constituency, accusing the CPI(M) State secretary M. V. Govindan of nepotism. Senior CPI(M) leader and Mr. M. V. Govindan’s wife, P. K. Shyamala, is the LDF candidate in the Assembly segment. Former Kerala BJP president K. Surendran is contesting from Manjeswaram in Kasaragod where he lost by narrow margins in 2016 and 2021.
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