Kerala Assembly polls: Every election has a new script in Aranmula

Unlike its rich cultural and spiritual traditions, the political legacy of Aranmula has rarely followed a steady course.

Voter preferences here tend to shift from one election to another, making it one of the most unpredictable constituencies in the State. After the reorganisation of the constituency in 2008, the United Democratic Front (UDF) secured the seat in 2011. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) then turned the tables in the next two elections, while the UDF has continued to hold an edge in the Lok Sabha and local body polls.

One of the largest constituencies in Kerala in terms of voter strength, Aranmula brings together areas that were once part of the erstwhile Pathanamthitta and Aranmula segments. According to the latest electoral roll, it has 2,14,575 voters. In the 2021 Assembly elections, it stood out as the constituency with the highest number of voters in the State, with 2.37 lakh electors. Campaigning here is no easy task, with candidates having to traverse a vast geographic spread and connect with voters within tight time frames.

The local body map of Aranmula adds another layer to the contest. After the recent elections, the UDF now controls a majority of panchayats, including Eraviperoor, Koipuram, Thottapuzhassery, Kozhencherry, Aranmula, Mallappuzhassery, Elanthoor, Chenneerkara, and Mezhuveli, along with the Pathanamthitta municipality. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holds sway in Omalloor and Naranganam, while Kulanada remains the lone LDF stronghold. Many of these panchayats were previously under LDF control, underscoring how quickly the ground can shift.

For the LDF, Veena George is seeking yet another term from the seat. Entering electoral politics as a first timer in 2016, she returned with a larger majority in the next election. Now, as Health Minister, Ms.George is banking on her track record over the past five years and has already begun her campaign in earnest.

The Congress, meanwhile, is looking to mount a serious challenge by fielding youth leader Abin Varkey Kodiyattu. In a constituency where community equations and personal influence often matter as much as party loyalty, his entry adds weight to the UDF’s bid to wrest back the seat. Expectations of anti-incumbency sentiment have further energised the party camp.

Triangular contests

With the NDA also maintaining a presence in the constituency, Aranmula has repeatedly witnessed tight triangular contests. That trend is expected to continue, with the Bharatiya Janata Party fielding senior leader Kummanam Rajasekharan, who had helmed the agitation against the proposed Aranmula airport, in the hope of improving on its best ever performance of 37,906 votes, recorded in 2016.

At the heart of Aranmula’s politics lies its social fabric. Community equations have long played a decisive role, with the influence of the Nair community and the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church shaping both candidate selection and campaign strategies.

The constituency rarely follows a fixed voting pattern. In 2011, two sitting MLAs faced off, with K. Sivadasan Nair of the Congress defeating K.C. Rajagopal by 6,511 votes.

Tide shifts

The tide shifted in 2016, when Veena George defeated Sivadasan Nair by 7,646 votes. She widened that margin significantly in 2021, winning by 19,003 votes against the same opponent. Yet, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, she trailed by 6,593 votes in the Aranmula segment against Anto Antony.

A glance at the broader electoral history of the region reflects a similar pattern of surprises and swings. In 1996, veteran Communist Marxist Party (CMP) leader M.V. Raghavan faced a major setback when poet Kadammanitta Ramakrishnan defeated him.

At the State-level, CPI leader Thoppil Bhasi first represented Pathanamthitta in the Assembly, followed by C.K. Harichandran Nair in 1960 and M. Ravindranathan in 1963. Kerala Congress leader Vayala Idikula won in 1965. From 1967 to 2001, K.K. Nair remained a dominant force, winning multiple elections under different political banners. He lost only once, in 1977, and even in 2006, when he contested as an Independent, he finished third.