Kerala Hits And Misses: How Accurate Have Past Exit Poll Predictions Been For The State?

Last Updated:April 29, 2026, 08:10 IST

The exit polls have usually correctly predicted the winner in nearly every Kerala election. However, the margins are where most exit polls in the state have failed.

Kerala’s assembly elections have been marked by the alternating dominance of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and United Democratic Front (UDF) for years. However, that changed in 2021 when Kerala saw the LDF retaining power. Will the LDF make history with a third successive win in the southern state or will Kerala see the return of UDF? All eyes are now on exit poll results, which could give clarity on who really could be winning the battle for Kerala.

The 2026 election in Kerala shattered records with a whopping 87.2 per cent voter turnout across its 140 seats, the highest in over two decades, edging out even the 77 per cent of 2021. This higher voter turnout has sparked increased interest in the exit poll numbers for Kerala this election.

The exit polls have usually correctly predicted the winner in nearly every Kerala election since polling began in the 1980s. With 140 seats in play and razor-thin margins defining outcomes, pollsters have excelled at capturing the state’s predictable LDF-UDF binary but often failed on exact seat counts due to silent voters and late swings.

How Often Have Exit Polls Predicted Kerala Right?

Exit polls have nailed the winner in all Kerala elections since 2001, far outperforming surveys in states like Tamil Nadu or West Bengal. However, exit polls in Kerala have usually faltered on the extent of victories and losses.

What Opinion Polls Have Said On Kerala

Pre-poll surveys signal a nail-biter in Kerala. The IANS-Matrize gives LDF 61-71 seats, UDF 58-69, NDA 2 amid anti-incumbency on Pinarayi Vijayan’s two-term LDF. The Vote Tracker opinion poll by VoteVibe, released exclusively on CNN-News18, has projected the LDF to win 68-73 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the UDF is expected to settle with 64-70 seats. The NDA, on the other hand, may win only around two seats.

Exit polls could test if history’s precision holds or if silent swings upend the UDF’s slim edge in some forecasts.

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