Kerala polls: Past no longer decides future

Pala was once celebrated as a pensioners’ paradise, a tranquil town nestled near scenic hill stations. Being the heartland of Syrian Christian culture, the region was also called the ‘Mini Vatican’.

The fertile land suited rubber plantations and the money they generated brought in a certain modernity—imported cars, western music, new food habits— well before many other small towns caught up. More recently, it has reinvented itself as an educational hub, home to several prominent entrance coaching centres.For decades, politics of Pala was tied to one man: K M Mani. From the constituency’s formation in 1967 until his death in 2019, Mani won 12 consecutive elections here, making Pala his unassailable fortress.

His passing changed everything. In the 2019 by-election, Mani C Kappan, contesting with LDF backing, broke the KC(M) stranglehold. He retained the seat in 2021, this time under UDF banner. The defeat of Mani’s son, Jose K Mani, in 2021—by a margin of 15,378 votes—was a significant blow to the party, though KC(M) retained some relevance by staying within the ruling LDF coalition.Now, as another election approaches, Pala finds itself in unfamiliar territory: A triangular contest with BJP’s Shone George adding a compelling new dimension.

The party had signalled its growing strength in Pala as far back as 2016, when its candidate N Hari polled an impressive 24,821 votes. Shone George has built on that foundation and is looking to expand BJP’s reach. Crucially, his vote share could prove decisive in a tightly contested race.Shone George is far ahead in the campaign. However, the church’s strong opposition to the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment (FCRA) Bill, 2026 has, however, emerged as a setback for him.

The Pala diocese has openly raised concerns with the BJP-led Centre, introducing uncertainty over the Catholic vote in the constituency, which could swing any way.At the same time, Jose K Mani remains a strong contender. Despite his 2021 defeat, his experience, organizational network and the urgency to reclaim lost ground keep him firmly in the contest. Kappan, contesting as a UDF independent, brings his own narrative to the race.He first stood in Pala in 2006, losing to K M Mani in his first three attempts before finally winning the 2019 by-election following Mani’s death. His 2021 victory further cemented his position. Kappan’s primary campaign weapon this time is anti-incumbency—though whether that sentiment is strong enough to deliver a hat-trick remains uncertain N Hari, who set BJP’s vote record in 2016, is confident about the party’s current trajectory.

“The election rally in Pala is proof of how far we’ve grown. Youngsters are rallying behind Shone, and there is a clear Modi effect even among minority voters,” he said.Among voters, concerns remain grounded in everyday issues. Eby J Jose notes that a lack of visible development is evident, pointing to distress caused by the cooperative banking crisis and declining rubber prices. Alex Menamparambil, a retired bank employee who now focuses on rubber farming, says the sector’s downturn cannot be pinned on any one govt, but stresses the urgent need for its revival.For Jose K Mani, this election is about redemption. He is campaigning on his track record as an MP—particularly his role in transforming Pala into an educational hub— while drawing attention to what he describes as seven years of stalled development under the incumbent.UDF is countering these narratives by highlighting developmental work in rural areas, while also arguing that Jose K Mani’s presence within the ruling LDF actually hampered progress in the constituency.Local body poll results offer Kappan some statistical comfort— UDF controls the Pala municipality and seven panchayats, compared to five for LDF. Yet in a tight three-way race, numbers alone rarely tell the full story. Pala’s political equation in 2024 has grown far too complex for simple predictions.