Monsoon likely to intensify in Kerala next week

After a brief hiatus, the southwest monsoon is set to intensify across parts of central and north Kerala, powered by the strengthening of the westerlies. The paucity of the monsoon in the State, especially in central and south Kerala in the first two weeks of July, has increased the rain deficit for the month, which is otherwise considered the rainiest month in the four-month south monsoon season.

Bridging shortfall

Though most parts of the State, except for northern districts such as Kannur and Kasaragod, have mostly received less rain so far in July after a normal June rain, there are signs of monsoon intensification supported by the strong westerly stream from the Arabian Sea, which is expected to bridge rain shortfall in July.

The likely reappearance of semi-permanent monsoon features like the offshore trough in the third week of July is expected to support rainfall intensification in the monsoon core regions along the west coast of India, including north Kerala and parts of central Kerala.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a yellow alert warning of isolated heavy rain across the State, except for the three southernmost districts, on Saturday and seven districts from Thrissur to Kasaragod on Sunday.

South waits for rain

Meanwhile, the wait for a decent rain for the southernmost districts will continue for a few more days, although light to moderate and short-duration rain is likely in these districts. The southwest monsoon is still 14% deficient in Kerala, with the State getting only 790.4 mm of rainfall from June 1 to July 12, 2025, as against the normal rainfall of 915.7 mm of rain during this period.

Though the rainfall departure of plus or minus 19% is considered normal by the IMD, the monsoon is severely deficient in Wayanad (42%) and Idukki (33%) and moderately deficient in Kottayam (22%) and Malappuram (20%).