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Morgan Stanley is sounding the alarm: sodium-ion batteries aren’t just an interesting side note in the energy world anymore. They’re about to become a major player. Their analysts say we’re headed for a wave of change, with something as common as table salt taking a starring role in how we store clean energy. In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley laid it out: sodium-ion batteries might move from being a niche technology to a huge chunk of the total market in just ten years. They think sodium-ion batteries could grab 20% of the global battery market by 2030, then jump to 37% by 2035. That’s not a small shift. They expect capacity to hit almost 830 gigawatt-hours in 2030, then nearly triple to 2.4 terawatt-hours by 2035. Getting there won’t be cheap, either—Morgan Stanley estimates we’ll see close to $800 billion in fresh investment as companies go from small pilot projects to actual mass production.
So, why all the excitement about sodium-ion batteries? The basics are pretty simple. Instead of lithium, these batteries use sodium, which is cheap, everywhere, and doesn’t come with the supply-chain headaches that lithium does. The bank’s analysts reckon sodium-ion battery packs might cost 30% to 40% less than current lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Plus, sodium-ion tech holds up better in the cold. Many lithium batteries lose performance when things get chilly, but sodium-ion batteries tend to keep more of their capacity. This opens some real opportunities, especially in colder climates where renewables and energy storage can struggle during the winter. Projects way up north, for example, often run into problems with weak winter sun and big storage losses. A cheaper battery that actually works in the cold could make these places a lot more attractive to developers.
Automakers and battery companies aren’t sitting on the sidelines, either. Big names are jumping in, moving from the lab into pilot lines and soon, actual factories. General Motors stands out in the U.S.—they’ve teamed up with Denver startup Peak Energy to develop sodium-ion cells for large-scale storage, securing exclusive manufacturing rights in the country. They’re aiming for production-ready cells around 2028. GM says they want to boost energy density and make sodium-ion batteries a real contender to current tech, while Peak Energy claims its batteries could cut storage costs by about 20% compared to traditional lithium-ion systems.
Meanwhile, Chinese giants are a step ahead in some spots. Companies like BYD and CATL have started mass-producing sodium-ion cells for smaller vehicles, so China already holds a strong position in this tech’s rollout. Morgan Stanley also says this shift could rattle the global battery supply chain. Companies with deep manufacturing capabilities and strong vertical integration stand to gain the most, while smaller players might struggle. And then there’s the commodities angle—if sodium-ion designs use less copper than lithium-ion, worldwide copper demand could drop by 200,000 metric tons.
Not every automaker is jumping on sodium as the future. Ford, for one, is carving its own path. With Ford Energy, the company is sticking to large-scale lithium-based storage instead of chasing sodium tech, which just shows how the battery world isn’t betting on a single winner yet—everyone’s hedging their bets. There’s more than the cost and chemistry to consider. If sodium-ion batteries go mainstream, countries might rethink which materials really matter. Lithium sources are concentrated in just a few parts of the world, so they’ve become strategic assets watched by governments everywhere. Sodium isn’t like that—it’s cheap, abundant, and easier to get. The tension probably won’t be about salt itself, but more about who controls manufacturing, design, and intellectual property. Whoever builds out these supply chains first could end up on top, especially in stationary storage, small vehicles, and cold weather markets.
Now, it’s not a done deal. Sodium-ion batteries still have some proving to do. Energy density is a hurdle—electric cars need batteries that are light and powerful, and sodium-ion isn’t quite there yet. There are questions around durability, safety, and how well these batteries fit with the systems we’re already using. And don’t forget, lithium technologies aren’t standing still. Established manufacturers are always looking for ways to cut costs and boost performance, which could slow down sodium-ion’s rise in some segments. Still, with Morgan Stanley talking about $800 billion in new investment by 2035, it’s clear sodium-ion batteries have moved way past the experimental stage. The race is on. For utilities, carmakers, battery suppliers, and investors, the next decade promises a shake-up as new storage technologies come online and supply chains adapt to a whole new reality.
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