News18 Exit Polls 2026: Bengal Favours BJP, Kerala Too Close To Call, Tamil Nadu On Knife Edge

Last Updated:April 29, 2026, 20:30 IST

CNN-News18 exit poll projections show BJP ahead in West Bengal and Assam, AIADMK+ slightly ahead in Tamil Nadu, and UDF narrowly leading LDF in Kerala.

News18 Exit Polls 2026, Results Predictions: The 2026 Assembly elections across four states and a Union Territory formally drew to a close today (April 29) with the completion of the second and final phase of polling in West Bengal. With voting now over, attention has swiftly shifted from campaign trails and polling booths to the much-anticipated exit poll results for Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Assam.

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After the polling, key political questions now dominate the national conversation. Can the BJP mount a serious challenge to unseat Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal? Will actor Vijay manage to break into Tamil Nadu’s entrenched DMK-AIADMK political landscape? In Assam, will Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma steer the BJP to a stronger mandate, or can the Congress regain lost ground? Meanwhile, in Kerala, the spotlight is on whether the Left can secure a rare third consecutive term.

CNN-News18 is here to answer these questions. However, exit polls offer only an indicative snapshot and not final results and should be read with caution.

West Bengal (Phase 1)

Exit poll projections for West Bengal (phase 1) suggest a neck-to-neck contest between the BJP and the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), with the BJP holding a slender edge. According to projections released exclusively by VoteVibe for CNN-News18, the BJP is projected to win between 88 and 98 of the 152 seats in this phase, with a midpoint of 93, while the TMC+ alliance is expected to secure 51 to 61 seats (midpoint 56). The Congress is likely to remain marginal with 2 to 4 seats.

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The projections suggest the BJP has a structural advantage in Phase 1, driven by strong support among SC, ST, OBC and upper-caste Hindu voters, and is leading across most zones except Malda, where the TMC retains dominance due to its consolidated Muslim voter base.

Tamil Nadu

Exit poll projections for Tamil Nadu suggest a tightly contested race, with a slight edge for the AIADMK-led alliance over the ruling DMK-led bloc. According to projections released exclusively by VoteVibe for CNN-News18, the AIADMK+ is projected to win between 114 and 124 seats in the 234-member Assembly, with a midpoint of 119- comfortably above the majority mark of 118.

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The DMK+ alliance is expected to secure 103 to 113 seats (midpoint 108), indicating a close fight, while actor Vijay’s TVK could make a modest debut with 4 to 10 seats. Vote share projections remain narrow, with AIADMK+ at 39.9 percent and DMK+ at 38.9 percent, followed by TVK at 15.8 percent.

Kerala

Exit poll projections for Kerala indicate a tightly contested race, with an edge for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). According to exit poll projections released exclusively by VoteVibe for CNN-News18, the UDF has inched ahead of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) in vote share. However, the margin remains extremely narrow and well within the statistical range of error, making the final outcome too close to call with certainty.

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In terms of seats, the projections suggest the UDF could win between 70 and 80 seats in the 140-member Assembly, with a midpoint estimate of 75- just above the majority mark of 71. The LDF is projected to secure between 58 and 68 seats, indicating it may fall short of retaining power. The NDA is expected to remain a minor player, with estimates ranging from 0 to 4 seats.

Assam

In Assam, exit poll projections point to a decisive victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), indicating that Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is likely on course for a second consecutive term. According to projections released exclusively by VoteVibe for CNN-News18, the NDA has established a significant lead over the Congress-led opposition alliance, pointing to a relatively comfortable return to power in the northeastern state.

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Seat projections place the NDA in a dominant position, with an estimated 90 to 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, well above the majority mark of 64, with a midpoint estimate of 95 seats. The Congress-led Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM) is projected to win between 23 and 33 seats, while the AIUDF is expected to remain marginal with a projected tally of 0 to 6 seats.

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