Normal to above-normal July rain likely for Vidarbha: IMD

Nagpur: Even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole in July, Vidarbha is likely to buck the trend, with the region expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the peak monsoon month. Vidarbha is among the few patches across the country where IMD has forecast normal to above-normal southwest monsoon rains.

Besides parts of Central India, Jammu & Kashmir, parts of Northeast, parts of Odisha, parts of MP and parts of Andhra Pradesh are likely to received good rains.In its monthly outlook released on Tuesday, the IMD said July rainfall over the country is most likely to be below normal, defined as less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for July, based on the 1971-2020 period, is 280.4 mm.However, the forecast indicates that Northwest India, Northeast India, East-Central India and parts of the East Peninsular region, including Vidarbha, are likely to witness normal to above-normal rainfall, raising hopes for a recovery after the delayed onset of the southwest monsoon.The optimistic outlook follows a sharp improvement in the region’s rainfall position during the second half of June. After recording a deficit of over 70% in mid-June, Vidarbha’s cumulative rainfall deficit has narrowed to 39% as of June 30 following widespread rainfall across several districts.Nagpur district has also witnessed a significant recovery, with its rainfall deficit improving to 31% below normal, compared to more than 70% deficient earlier this month.

According to IMD data for the period June 1-30, Vidarbha received 107.6 mm rainfall against a normal of 175.4 mm, a departure of -39%. Among the districts, Amravati (-13%) has the lowest rainfall deficit, followed by Buldhana (-17%), Wardha (-18%) and Akola (-19%). On the other hand, Gondia (-74%) and Gadchiroli (-71%) continue to face severe rainfall shortages despite the recent improvement.The IMD warned that below-normal rainfall over much of the country could impact agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation and drinking water availability, besides increasing the likelihood of drought-like conditions in some regions.The department has also forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of India, including Vidarbha, while minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over most regions.On the global climate front, the IMD said weak El Nino conditions currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to strengthen during the remaining southwest monsoon season. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and is expected to remain so through the monsoon season. These conditions affected normal rainfall over the country.