Odisha’s population could stabilise in next few years but experts warn of ageing challenge

Bhubaneswar: Ahead of World Population Day on July 11, experts and social scientists said Odisha’s population could stabilise in the next few years as the state’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from 2.92 in National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-1 (1992-93) to 1.7 in NFHS-6 (2023-24), well below the replacement level of 2.1, however, warning about the challenge of ageing.A social organisation has urged the govt to reconsider the two-child policy, citing the steady fall in fertility. “The decline in TFR is a silent tectonic shift in Odisha’s development trajectory. While India is aspiring to become a developed nation by 2047, Odisha may face a serious challenge of ageing. Odisha is undergoing a profound but largely unnoticed demographic transformation that could reshape its economic and social future.

The state is moving from a young and growing society to an ageing one, with annual births projected to decline sharply over the next two decades,” said public policy expert and former state information commissioner Jagadananda.By the 2040s, deaths may outnumber births in the state, while the elderly population is expected to more than double, he added. Odisha risks "ageing before prosperity” unless policymakers act urgently, he warned, citing concerns such as a shrinking workforce, rising dependency ratio, declining child population, gender imbalance and inadequate preparedness for elderly care.

State law minister Prithiviraj Harichandan told TOI on Friday that the govt is considering the issue. “It is high time we thought about this seriously. The impact of demographic change will be clearly visible by 2036, and we need to act accordingly,” he said.Jagadananda called for a comprehensive demographic strategy focused on women’s empowerment, youth skilling, active ageing and integration of demographic intelligence into governance to sustain Odisha’s Vision 2036 growth ambitions.Amarendra Das, associate professor at School of Humanities and Social Sciences, NISER Bhubaneswar, said Odisha’s rapidly declining fertility rate signals social progress but also narrows the state’s opportunity to benefit from the demographic dividend.“Across Europe, North America and East Asia, fertility declined alongside economic development. Many of these countries have offset shrinking workforces by attracting immigrants.

India, however, is unlikely to rely on large-scale immigration to address future labour shortages. It is therefore important to prevent fertility from falling persistently below the replacement level,” Das said.Rather than encouraging larger families through cash incentives alone, govts should create an enabling environment for child-rearing, he said. “Expanding affordable childcare services, particularly in urban areas, granting paid childcare leave to both mothers and fathers, and strengthening anganwadi centres are essential steps. Anganwadi services should be expanded to include crèche facilities for children aged six months to three years, enabling parents, especially women, to remain in the workforce. Such family-friendly policies can help balance demographic sustainability with economic growth,” he added.