Phalodi Satta Bazar Prediction: BJP Or Trinamool - Who Holds The Edge In West Bengal After Record Turnout?

Last Updated:April 24, 2026, 12:53 IST

The West Bengal 2026 election is shaping up to be far more competitive than 2021 when the BJP first established itself as a serious contender in the state.

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The first phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections concluded on Thursday with a voter turnout far exceeding the 2021 figures. While the challenger Bharatiya Janata Party and the ruling Trinamool Congress both claiming to have gained an edge over the other, estimates from the Phalodi Satta Bazar — an informal betting network known for election predictions — point to a contest that may be running deeper than expected.

According to the latest projections, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is expected to win around 158–161 seats in the 294-member Assembly, while the BJP could secure 127–130 seats, significantly narrowing the gap compared to the 2021 elections. The Congress and Left, on the other hand, are projected to remain marginal players.

Record Turnout in Phase 1

The predictions come against the backdrop of record voter turnout in the first phase of polling. Phase 1 of the 2026 elections, held across 152 constituencies, recorded a turnout of around 92.88%, the highest ever in the state.

This is significantly higher than the overall turnout of 82.3% recorded in the 2021 Assembly elections.

While direct constituency-wise comparison for the exact same seats is still being compiled, early trends suggest turnout in most of these seats has risen sharply compared to 2021, pointing to the possibility of a much higher voter mobilisation as compared to past elections.

What Happened in 2021?

In the last Assembly elections, TMC won 216 seats with a vote share of about 48% while the BJP secured 77 seats with nearly 38% vote share. The Congress-Left alliance managed just 1 seat with around 10% vote share.

The gap between TMC and BJP was over 130 seats in 2021, which, as per the betting market projections after the first phase of polling, could shrink dramatically to around 30 seats this time.

Historically, sharp spikes in voter participation in West Bengal have sometimes coincided with some political shifts, making the current election harder to call.

The Satta Bazar’s projections, though unofficial and based on betting trends rather than scientific sampling, indicate a resurgent BJP closing the gap with the Trinamool Congress. The predictions are also in line with analysts who see a largely bipolar contest, with other parties on the margins.

Caution On Predictions

The Phalodi Satta Bazar is not an official polling agency and operates as an informal, often illegal betting network. Its estimates are based on market perceptions and betting patterns and should be treated with caution.

(DISCLAIMER: Gambling is illegal unless permitted by state-specific laws. News18.com does not vouch for the factual correctness of these projections or promote betting markets in any manner.)

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