Pollster Track Record: Who Got India's 2021 Exit Polls Right?

Last Updated:April 29, 2026, 13:55 IST

A state-by-state breakdown of how Axis My India, C-Voter, Jan Ki Baat, and Today's Chanakya performed against the actual 2021 Indian state election results.

As the 2026 exit polls approach, let us revisit the 2021 assembly election predictions. In the past election, no single polling agency emerged with a clean record in India’s state assembly elections that year, which spanned five states and tested exit poll credibility across diverse political landscapes. Across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry, India’s major pollsters, including Axis My India, C-Voter, Jan Ki Baat, and Today’s Chanakya, each correctly called at least one race and badly missed at least one other. Here is how each agency’s predictions held up against the actual results.

Bengal: TMC Won 215 Seats Though None Projected Above 176

West Bengal was the election that exposed the limits of every major polling agency. All four agencies predicted a tight contest between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP in the 294-seat assembly. Axis My India projected TMC 130-156 and BJP 134-160. Jan Ki Baat projected BJP 162-185 and TMC 104-121. C-Voter projected TMC 152-164 and BJP 109-121. In reality, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC won 215 seats and the BJP won 77.

Jan Ki Baat’s prediction was the most inaccurate: it had the BJP winning outright with a projected range that placed them above the halfway mark. C-Voter at least had TMC ahead, though it placed the party 51 seats below the actual tally. Axis My India also had TMC in front but underestimated the party by 59 seats at its upper end. Not one agency projected the scale of TMC’s margin.

Kerala: C-Voter’s Biggest Miss

On Kerala, Axis My India predicted LDF would win 104-120 seats out of 140, while UDF would get 20-36. C-Voter projected LDF 71-77 and UDF 62-68. The LDF won 99 seats, and the UDF won 41.

Axis My India overestimated LDF by roughly 10-20 seats but got the party’s direction correct and placed UDF in the right ballpark at its upper end. C-Voter’s projection was a substantive failure: it placed UDF at 62-68 seats, more than 20 seats above where the alliance actually finished, while placing LDF 22-28 seats below its actual tally. Almost all exit polls did correctly predict that LDF would win a second consecutive term, breaking Kerala’s traditional alternating pattern.

Tamil Nadu: All Pollsters Ptredicted DMK’s Win

Pollsters were in agreement on Tamil Nadu, unanimously predicting a decisive win for the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, ending a decade of AIADMK rule. Axis My India projected DMK+ at 175-195 and AIADMK+ at 38-54. Today’s Chanakya projected DMK+ at 164-186 and AIADMK+ at 46-68. The DMK alliance won 159 seats, and AIADMK+ won 75.

Every major agency overestimated DMK and underestimated AIADMK+, with AIADMK+’s actual tally of 75 seats exceeding the highest projected range by seven seats. Winning outcome: correct. Seat arithmetic: off by a considerable margin for all agencies.

Assam: Axis My India’s Estimate of 75 Matched NDA’s Actual Tally

In Assam, Axis My India predicted NDA would win 75-85 seats and the Congress-led alliance 40-50. C-Voter predicted a tighter contest, placing NDA at 58-71 and Congress+ at 53-66. The NDA retained power with 75 seats.

Axis My India’s lower bound of 75 matched the actual NDA result exactly. C-Voter placed NDA’s upper limit at 71, four seats below the final count, and placed Congress+ far higher than where the alliance finished.

Puducherry: Pollsters Overestimated NDA Alliance by 3 to 8 Seats

In Puducherry, Axis My India projected NDA at 20-24 seats, and C-Voter projected 19-23. The NDA formed the government with 16 seats. Both agencies overestimated the NDA alliance by three to eight seats, though both correctly projected a change in government.

The 2021 Scorecard

Across all five states, no polling agency predicted the correct winner in every race and the correct seat count in any race. Jan Ki Baat’s West Bengal call, which projected a BJP win, was the single most consequential miss of the cycle. Axis My India correctly identified the winning party in all five states and was closest to the actual result in Assam. C-Voter’s Kerala prediction was the furthest from the result by margin. Today’s Chanakya did not cover all states but matched the winner in those it polled.

Exit poll credibility in India has long rested less on precision and more on directional accuracy. In 2021, West Bengal showed that direction alone is not always enough.

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