Prediction Market Bets On Removal Of Iran's Khamenei Trigger Concerns Over Insider Trading

Last Updated:March 03, 2026, 13:14 IST

US lawmakers and analysts noted that bets on Khamenei's removal were placed both in January and just before the attacks.

Bets placed on the removal of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei faced scrutiny on Monday in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The scrutiny led Democratic US lawmakers to call for a ban on wagers regarding military actions that could potentially benefit officials with insider knowledge.

The Iranian Supreme Leader was killed in Israeli air strikes on Tehran, the capital of Iran, over the weekend. US lawmakers and analysts noted that bets on his removal were placed both in January and just before the attacks, raising longstanding concerns about the legality and ethics of such trades, as well as the potential for insider trading.

According to a Reuters review of Polymarket’s website, $529 million was laid on ​a series of contracts tied to the timing of attacks, while $150 million was bet on contracts on the removal of Khamenei as Supreme Leader.

Additionally, Bubblemaps, the Analytics ​firm, said on X that six accounts made a $1.2 million profit from Polymarket bets funded in the hours before Saturday’s ⁠raids. Rival Kalshi also ran a market on “Khamenei out."

Questions Raised On Prediction Market Bets

In response to Bubblemaps’ post, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy took to X Sunday and wrote, “It’s insane this is legal." Without providing evidence, he added that people around President Donald Trump were profiting from the conflict. “I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this," he added.

Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman, said, “The only special interest guiding the Trump administration’s ​decision-making is the best interest of the American people."

A Democrat and California Representative, Mike Levin, also took to X on Saturday and flagged a Polymarket bet placed shortly before the Iran strikes.

“Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action. We need answers, transparency, and oversight," he wrote.

Earlier as well, Democratic senators raised concerns that prediction markets breached US rules, and created incentives to foment conflict and disclose classified information.

The concerns were raised after a mystery trader made ​a roughly $410,000 profit betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The Popularity Of Prediction Market

Prediction markets gained popularity following the 2024 US election, when their real-time probabilities proved more accurate than polling in forecasting Donald Trump’s victory.

They offer tradable yes-or-no contracts that allow users to bet on a wide range of real-world events from ​sports to politics and the economy. Bet ​costs fluctuate between zero and 100 ⁠cents, and typically pay out when an outcome is confirmed.

Notably, the US law prohibits wagers contrary to the public interest, which may involve or relate to war or assassination.

According to reports, the prediction markets last year enjoyed $47 billion ⁠in global ​trading volume, according to analysts at brokerage Clear Street.

(With agency inputs)

News world Prediction Market Bets On Removal Of Iran's Khamenei Trigger Concerns Over Insider Trading

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