'Solution to penal tariffs in 8-10 weeks’: CEA Nageswaran’s ‘personal feeling’ on Trump tariffs; says 15% rate eyed

Amid ongoing India-US trade deal talks, the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has expressed optimism about matters being resolved soon. Nageswaran expects the penal tariffs by the Donald Trump administration to be withdrawn soon, adding that a 15% tariff rate is being eyed.According to an ET report, Nageswaran believes the ongoing tariff dispute between India and the United States could reach resolution within two months, with the anticipated withdrawal of penal tariffs.The CEA indicated ongoing discussions aimed at reducing the reciprocal tariff from 25 per cent to approximately 15 per cent, a step if it happens would be positive news for the export sector.At a Merchant Chamber of Commerce & Industry event, the CEA said, "I do believe the penal tariff will not be there after Nov 30."During a separate session at the Bharat Chamber of Commerce, he noted, "I have no insider information but my personal feeling is we will see resolutions in case of the extra 25% penal tariff."Also Read | ‘Will be addressed satisfactorily’: Piyush Goyal expresses optimism on India-US trade deal talks; calls relations positiveHe added, "Underneath the surface, conversations are going on between the two governments. My hunch is that in the next eight to ten weeks, we will likely see a solution to the penal tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods."

The CEA emphasised that resolving this issue holds significance beyond trade considerations, extending to its impact on capital formation.

US-India Trade Discussions Show Progress

The tariff situation became critical when Washington levied a 25 per cent duty in August 2025 on Indian exports, with an additional 25 per cent penalty due to India's Russian oil purchases.In the financial year 2025, India's exports to the United States reached $86.51 billion, establishing the US as India's primary export destination.The trade deal talks resumed when Brendan Lynch, who heads the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement negotiations at the Office of the United States Trade Representative, visited India on September 16, 2025, restarting the previously halted negotiations.Also Read | ‘Severe sectoral pain’: India’s exports to US fall for third straight month as Trump imposes 50% tariffs; what should be the policy response?The Commerce Department meetings were characterised as "positive and forward looking," and both nations committed to accelerate their efforts towards achieving a prompt trade agreement.Regarding domestic conditions, Chief Economic Adviser Nageswaran indicated that India's economy continues to maintain its growth trajectory. "The first quarter growth has a carry forward momentum. I expect second-quarter GDP growth to be around 7 per cent," he said.India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded projections and reached a five-quarter peak, expanding by 7.8% during the April-June quarter of FY26.