Strong El Nino impact on southwest monsoon will have far-reaching consequences, warn experts

The strong El Nino, which delayed the onset of the southwest monsoon, has also resulted in deficient rainfall in Karnataka so far. Between June 1 and July 8, the State recorded 191 mm of rainfall against the normal 266 mm, representing a departure of -28%. However, the situation improved slightly in July.

According to data from the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA), the State received 75 mm of rainfall in July against the normal 67 mm, a departure of +13%, which falls under the normal category. Despite the overall improvement in rainfall during July, South Interior Karnataka recorded a deficit, with a departure of -60%.

“El Nino has had a definite impact on the State. On one side, there have been very heavy rains in some parts of Karnataka and, on the other, an almost drought-like situation. The rainfall has mostly been confined to the coastal and Malnad regions, which had received deficient rainfall in June. However, July has seen deficient rainfall in South Interior Karnataka, with a shortfall of 60%,” said G.S. Srinivasa Reddy, former director of Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre.

He added that the deficient rainfall in South Interior Karnataka could affect kharif crops.

“We may see a similar pattern in July as well in South Interior Karnataka, which is the State’s main crop-growing region. Nearly 70% of Karnataka’s kharif crops are grown in this region,” he said.

Mahesh Palawat, vice-president – Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather, said that, like the rest of the country, El Nino has also affected rainfall patterns in Karnataka.

North Interior Karnataka

He said that while Belagavi, Uttar Kannada, Dakshina Kannada and even Bengaluru may receive sufficient rainfall, North Interior Karnataka is likely to experience slightly below-normal rainfall during July and August.

“El Nino has affected not only Karnataka, but the entire country, and overall rainfall is likely to remain on the lower side. North Interior Karnataka, being a landlocked region, seldom receives good rainfall. Unless there is a significant and intense weather system over the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea, there may not be much change in the forecast,” he said.

May weaken

Mr. Palawat added that the monsoon is likely to weaken over the next few days and that many parts of the country could witness a dry spell.

“We are likely to enter a break monsoon phase by July 11 or 12. From July 11 onwards, weather conditions are expected to turn dry across most parts of the south peninsula, northwest India and central India. Most parts of the south peninsula could experience dry weather for at least a week,” he said.

Mr. Reddy said the impact of El Nino on the southwest monsoon will not be limited to the next couple of months alone but could extend into the future.

“Only about 30% of the monsoon season is over, while 70% is still to come. However, the forecast does not look encouraging. There could be an impact on rabi crops as well. More importantly, the next summer may also be affected, as groundwater levels could decline, borewells may run dry, and we could face drinking water scarcity,” he said.