Surging jihadist violence in Sahel fuels fears unrest may spread

Abidjan: Jun 06, 2025 -Jihadists have intensified their offensives in the Sahel region in recent weeks, carrying out bloody raids in Mali, incursions into major cities in Burkina Faso and inflicting heavy army losses in Niger.The three Sahel states' military juntas, who had pledged during the coups that brought them to power to make security a priority, are struggling to contain the advance of jihadists, who are threatening more than ever neighbouring countries on the west African coast.The last few weeks have been particularly deadly in the Sahel, the poor, semi-arid region below the Sahara desert.Several hundred soldiers have been killed in various attacks claimed by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) in Mali and Burkina Faso, and the Islamic State in the Sahel (EIS) group in Niger.- Why are attacks intensifying? -"The global vision of regional terrorism is changing. There is an ideological aspect, but also an ethnic one," said Lassina Diarra of the International Counter-Terrorism Academy in Jacqueville, Ivory Coast."Jihadist leaders declared in March their intent to intensify attacks against national armies to prevent a genocide against the Fulani community."Military violence targeting civilians -- particularly the Fulani, often singled out in the Sahel region and accused of feeding the jihadists' ranks -- "has exacerbated grievances and played into jihadist narratives, driving JNIM's expansion", said the Soufan Center think tank in a brief.

It also highlighted "a broader strategy to degrade public confidence in state forces, boost recruitment"."There is also a question of competition for territory," Diarra added."JNIM is accelerating attacks to reduce the influence of EIS, which is making a comeback."- What are jihadists' ambitions? -According to many observers, the goals of JNIM and EIS differ."EIS aims for a global jihad, with the intention of establishing a caliphate, the strict implementation of sharia law and a brutal approach, including against civilian populations," Diarra said."JNIM has a more political approach".- Could they topple a government?-The capitals of Mali and Burkina Faso "are surrounded", said Diarra."Given its increasing operational capabilities, JNIM has the capabilities to occupy a capital. The challenge will be to administer it. It's unclear they have the means and expertise in this area."For Gilles Yabi, founder of the west African think tank Wathi, it is important to remain cautious of "catastrophic" predictions.The jihadists' "main advantage is their mobility and ability to move and blend with populations", he said."In Burkina Faso, we cannot rule out a Somalia-like scenario, with a capital that resists while the rest of the country is out of control," said a Western military source.- What response? -The juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger came to power through coups between 2020 and 2023 and are now united in a confederation, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).They have been turning their backs on west African bloc ECOWAS and Western powers engaged in anti-jihadist efforts.The military rulers rarely communicate about jihadist attacks, insisting they are reclaiming large portions of territory."What is concerning and greatly destabilises the military is the use of drones by armed groups, which can reduce or even annihilate the advantage armies seemed to have gained in recent months," said Yabi."These governments live in isolation and also face financial issues, such as paying soldiers. There is reason to question their capacity to resist in the long run," Diarra said.The Alliance of Sahel States announced at the beginning of the year the formation of a 5,000-soldier joint force, with its three armies conducting operations together."We can't say there are no results at all, but they are losing many men, which is likely creating concerns regarding soldier mobilisation," Yabi said.The Western military source said he "fears regional collapse" due to a "cocktail of factors: not very solid governments, all sorts of trafficking, demographic explosion, misinformation on social media and the withdrawal of American aid".- Could the threat spread? -The northern parts of Togo and Benin, bordering Sahelian states, are already regularly targeted by violent jihadist incursions.Benin maintains tense relations with neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, which have accused it of harbouring jihadist training bases -- an accusation it denies."The fact that Benin cannot directly talk with its neighbours and therefore struggles to secure its borders increases its vulnerability," Diarra said.JNIM is also seeking to establish itself in Senegal and Mauritania via Mali, according to a study by the Timbuktu Institute.Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko has taken the threat seriously. During a visit to Burkina Faso in May, Sonko said it was "illusory" to think jihadism would remain confined to the Sahel region.