Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026: Will Vijay Play Kingmaker In A Tight DMK Vs AIADMK Race?

Last Updated:April 29, 2026, 19:13 IST

Exit Poll Results: While Vijay may not have swept Tamil Nadu, he may have made a dent that could lead to both allies hunting more allies.

Has The “Vijay factor" really played big in Tamil Nadu elections 2026? Exit polls for the southern state indicate that while “Thalapathy" may not be making it big in Tamil Nadu, he may still play kingmaker as Tamil Nadu is projected to be headed towards a fractured mandate.

Tamil Nadu recorded a record high voter turnout in the 2026 election at 85.1 per cent. Historically, Tamil Nadu has seen change of government in the elections it witnessed a high voter turnout. This year’s CNN-News18-Vote Vibe exit poll has predicted a close contest with DMK+ winning 103-113 seats and the AIADMK+ getting 114-124 seats. Meanwhile, Vijay’s TVK has been projected to win about 4 to 10 seats.

However, what’s more interesting is the 1 per cent vote share difference projected by the exit polls between the two alliances. While the DMK is expected to get a 38.9 per cent vote share, the AIADMK alliance is expected to get a 39.9 per cent vote share.

For years, the state’s politics has largely been a straight fight between the DMK-led alliance and the AIADMK-led bloc. But this time, post-poll surveys are hinting at a neck-and-neck race where even small vote shifts could tilt dozens of seats.

And that is precisely where Vijay enters the picture.

Vijay’s Entry In Politics To Him Becoming Possible Kingmaker

Vijay’s political debut may look sudden, but it has been quietly building for over a decade. His vast network of fan clubs — often dismissed as just cinema fandom — had already begun morphing into grassroots units engaged in social work and local mobilisation. That groundwork culminated in 2024 with the launch of his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.

Unlike many new entrants who align with established players, Vijay chose to go solo. Contesting alone in a state dominated by two entrenched alliances is not just risky, but a statement. He was aiming to redraw the political map of Tamil Nadu.

However, his rise, it turns out, may not be as dramatic. Most exit polls predict no sweeping victory for Vijay. Instead, they paint a more nuanced picture. While he may not have swept Tamil Nadu, he may have made a dent that could lead to both allies hunting more allies.

If the surveys are right and neither the DMK+ nor AIADMK+ alliance pulls decisively ahead, Tamil Nadu could be staring at a fractured mandate, a rare scenario in a state used to clear verdicts. In that situation, even a small clutch of seats won by TVK could suddenly matter enormously.

The irony is hard to miss. Vijay, who has publicly framed his entry as a bid for full power rather than coalition politics, could find himself in a position where his influence exceeds his seat tally.

Even if Vijay does not emerge as kingmaker this time, his impact is already visible. By inserting himself into what surveys suggest is a razor-close contest, he has complicated the calculations for both major alliances.

Whether or not the final results produce a hung assembly, Vijay’s first electoral outing seems less like a climax and more like an opening chapter. If the surveys hold and the margins remain tight, he may not need a sweeping victory to matter. In a close race, influence doesn’t always come from dominance — sometimes, it comes from disruption.

And in Tamil Nadu’s 2026 election, disruption may well be Vijay’s biggest victory.

News elections Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026: Will Vijay Play Kingmaker In A Tight DMK Vs AIADMK Race?

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