Tamil Nadu Hits And Misses: How Accurate Have Past Exit Poll Predictions Been?

Last Updated:April 24, 2026, 16:01 IST

Exit polls in Tamil Nadu assembly elections have had mixed accuracy historically, often correctly predicting the winning alliance but overestimating seat margins.

Tamil Nadu has recorded an exceptionally high voter turnout in Assembly Elections 2026. As voting took place in the southern state on April 23, Tamil Nadu witnessed history. According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), Tamil Nadu saw a voter turnout of 84.98 per cent, its highest ever since Independence. All eyes are now on the exit polls, which will come out days before the final election results.

The exit polls results for Tamil Nadu will be out on April 29, after voting for the Phase 2 of West Bengal elections ends. While the opinion polls had predicted a DMK alliance return, the high voter turnout may just have changed this, or not. Whether the exit polls will now carry the same predictions or will they change will be clear on April 29.

How Many Times Have Exit Polls Predicted Tamil Nadu Poll Results Right?

Exit polls in Tamil Nadu assembly elections have had mixed accuracy historically, often correctly predicting the winning alliance but overestimating seat margins.

In 2021, major exit polls accurately predicted the DMK-led victory but projected larger wins than the actual 159 (out of the total 234) seats won by DMK and its allies, with AIADMK+ at 75 seats, placing it at the lower end of predictions.

In 2016, exit polls were largely inaccurate, with most predicting a DMK-led alliance victory despite AIADMK’s actual win of 136 seats.

In the 2011 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, most exit polls were divided or leaned toward a close contest, with some predicting a DMK-led alliance edge despite AIADMK’s landslide actual victory.

In 2006, several exit polls had predicted a hung assembly even as DMK went on to sweep the elections with 163 seats.

What Opinion Polls Have Predicted For Tamil Nadu 2026

According to the latest Vote Tracker opinion poll by VoteVibe, released exclusively on CNN-News18, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance, comprising the Congress, CPI, and CPI(M), is projected to win between 113 and 123 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly.

The Matrize opinion has projected that the NDA (AIADMK-led) could win 107-120 seats while the DMK+ may get 102-115 seats. It has also predicted 5-12 seats for Vijay’s TVK.

News elections Tamil Nadu Hits And Misses: How Accurate Have Past Exit Poll Predictions Been?

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