Tamil Nadu polls: Thevar vote consolidation goes South

The prospect of a consolidation of thevar votes in the southern districts has unravelled. At Pasumpon during Thevar Jayanthi on Oct 30 last year, AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran sharing the stage with expelled AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam and senior gounder-belt leader K A Sengottaiyan had sparked speculation of a broad social and political alignment.

Then V K Sasikala joined OPS and Sengottaiyan after Dhinakaran left the venue, fuelling talk of a consolidation.However, three-time chief minister OPS has joined DMK and is contesting from Bodinayakanur on the ‘rising sun’ symbol; Dhinakaran has returned to the Edappadi K Palaniswami-led alliance despite earlier acrimony; Sasikala has floated a party of her own; and Sengottaiyan has aligned with Vijay.This fragmentation comes at a time when AIADMK has lost its grip on Theni district, which returned three chief ministers from the party — MGR from Andipatti, Jayalalithaa and OPS from Bodinayakanur.

DMK had capitalised on the situation, winning 40 of the 58 Assembly seats in the broader southern region in 2021. Four of the seven constituencies where AIADMK lost its deposit were in the south.While AIADMK is attempting to claw back lost ground by bringing Dhinakaran’s AMMK into its fold and banking on BJP’s growing support, DMK has moved to consolidate its position by inducting expelled AIADMK leaders such as Thanga Tamil selvan, OPS, PH Manoj Pandian, A Anwhar Raajhaa and their supporters.

Sasikala’s decision to field candidates in several constituencies is seen as an attempt to dent both Edappadi K Palaniswami and Dhinakaran.Within AIADMK, an underlying thevar-gounder fault line continues to cause disquiet. In the south, there’s a perception that thevar influence in AIADMK has waned after Palaniswami assumed leadership.DMK, meanwhile, has succeeded in engaging with other dominant caste groups such as devandra kula vellalars and naidus.

Local business circles also point to DMK govt’s push to bring industries and projects such as TIDEL parks to Theni, Tuticorin and Madurai, which they believe could benefit the ruling alliance among traders and industrialists.The contest is further complicated by the presence of Seeman’s NTK and Vijay’s TVK. Muslim voters are also expected to play a decisive role in several constituencies. With around 70,000 votes in Ramanathapuram and Tiruvadanai and sizeable populations in about 10 other segments, consolidation of community votes could tilt outcomes in close contests.AIADMK sees a fighting chance in Kanyakumari, where Thalavai N Sundaram has been renominated, while DMK is perceived to have an edge elsewhere in the district. A split in Hindu votes and consolidation of Christian votes for Congress could influence results.In Madurai region, minister P Moorthy’s re-entry from Madurai East appears relatively smooth, with the AIADMK fielding political novice Mangulam K Mahendran.

Moorthy underscored his confidence by launching his campaign from his rival’s native village. Madurai Central is set for a high-profile contest, with actor-director Sundar C, fielded by an AIADMK ally, taking on DMK minister PTR Palanivel Thiagarajan.However, the political spotlight is firmly on Thiruparankundram, where the deepam controversy has injected sharp polarisation. The issue triggered intense mobilisation, with both Dravidian majors seeking to tap into religious sentiment.

AIADMK renominated incumbent V V Rajan Chellappa, while DMK has fielded Kiruthiga Thangapandi. Entry of TVK’s CTR Nirmal Kumar has turned the contest triangular.In neighbouring Dindigul, DMK has shifted Palani MLA I P Senthilkumar to take on AIADMK’s Dindigul C Sreenivasan, setting up another keen battle.Fisherfolk constitute a significant voting bloc in the coastal districts. The community wants a permanent solution to the run-ins with the Sri Lankan Navy. Though chief minister M K Stalin has repeatedly flagged the issue and sought Union govt intervention, the problem persists. “It is an unending issue and the community wants a lasting solution,” said P Justin Antony, president of the International Fishermen Development Trust based in Kanyakumari.“Vijay’s entry will have an impact as many youngsters support him. It is still unclear whether he will play a spoilsport for AIADMK or DMK,” Antony said.(Inputs from Kaushik Kannan)