The BJP game plan is to win big even in defeat

New Delhi,UPDATED: Apr 17, 2026 14:57 IST

"Numbers ka game samay tay karega" (time will decide the numbers game), said Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address in the Lok Sabha on the women's reservation bill on Thursday. Numbers are crucial for the set of three bills that the government plans to get passed to reserve 33% of Lok Sabha seats for women before the 2029 general election. Numbers are the problem. The BJP and its allies do not have the 2/3rd support that they need. So, why is the government desperately pushing for reform?

The BJP most likely knows that it is in a unique position. It emerges victorious if it can get the women's quota bill approved. It can also convert the defeat in Parliament into a victory by blaming the Opposition for denying women their "fair share".

The strategy was evident in PM Modi's speech. He warned the opposition parties that women of the country wouldn't forgive quota-opposers, hinting that the issue would play out when they go to seek votes.

"I would also like to offer advice to those who think only in political terms. Ever since the discussion about women's reservations began in our country, and every election that followed, whoever opposed this right for women, the women of the country have not forgiven them," said Modi.

Modi was referring to the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the RJD, which opposed the women's quota bill in 2010. Both parties have, in recent years, seen their political fortunes take a hit.

In 2010, the UPA government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh attempted to bring a 33% reservation for women in elected bodies. SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, key constituents of the UPA, opposed the move, forcing Singh to drop the bill.

Modi, in his speech on Thursday, solidified the BJP's narrative that the opposition was depriving women of their rights and his government was fighting for them.

The opposition has sensed that. But the parties also realise that the BJP is trying to push through delimitation and add Lok Sabha seats, pivoting the entire exercise to the 33% women's quota.

"In 2023, when this law was passed, the Congress supported it, and even today, the Congress is strongly in support of women's reservation. But the truth is that the debate is not on women's reservations. The bill that the government has brought has changed the direction of the debate," Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi said on Thursday in Lok Sabha.

The Opposition knows that the BJP has placed it between the devil and the deep sea. It will lose out, be it in supporting or opposing the three bills that pave the way for the 33% quota for women.

"If Chanakya had been alive, he would have been shocked by your cunning," Priyanka Gandhi said with a smile, delivering a backhanded compliment to Home Minister Amit Shah, who was left smiling too.

The Opposition realises the bigger politics and has questioned the timing of the special session of Parliament, which comes even as Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are yet to vote.

The Trinamool Congress fears that it might be the BJP's attempt to consolidate women voters in Bengal, who have largely sided with the Mamata Banerjee-led party, due to its women-centric schemes.

"Why did the government not bring these bills earlier? Why this hurry when the Assembly elections [West Bengal and Tamil Nadu] are taking place? Women's reservation is a disguise to alter the election process and harm democracy," said Trinamool Congress MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar.

There is a realisation among opposition parties that the women's reservation bill will have resonance on the ground and might shape electoral outcomes. Women form a crucial segment of voters, and it was the Modi-led BJP that used targeted schemes for the new social engineering. The BJP has gone on to win one state after another with women-centric schemes like Ladli Behna, Ladki Bahin, and Deendayal Lado Lakshmi Yojana.

As the debate on the bills went on till late at night on Thursday, the BJP hastily notified the 2023 Women's Reservation Act, linking its fate to the three bills that are being resisted by the Opposition now.

This was explained by Congress MP Manish Tewari in an interview with The Indian Express. "If a Bill that is contingent on the passage of another Bill in the House fails, then the original Bill or Act also becomes infructuous," Tewari said, explaining the BJP's late-night move.

So, if the three bills now fail because of the Opposition parties, the BJP will place the blame fair and square on the parties for demolishing the Women's Reservation Bill that was passed and notified too. At the hustings, it will become very difficult for the Opposition to explain why it opposed a pro-women step of the government. The BJP will emerge victorious, even in defeat.

- Ends

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