The realpolitik of a reel hero

There is an anecdote floating around in Tamil Nadu for some years now: if all those aged below 18 have the right to vote, actor Vijay will be the Chief Minister. Can sheer charisma, or in this case, screen presence, alone help win elections?

Welcome to Tamil Nadu, the land of Dravidians, where politics and cinema have been the bread and butter, or to be culturally correct, the idli and sambar, of normal life; where charisma has met charisma on the battlefield for years. Over the past five decades, just two parties — the DMK and the AIADMK — have shared power in the State. For the better part of five decades, elections have been the contests between former DMK president M. Karunanidhi and two other charismatic leaders: his friend and darling of the masses M.G. Ramachandran and then MGR’s protégé Jayalalithaa.

The political context

With the demise of these larger-than-life figures, M.K. Stalin,  Karunanidhi’s son, has emerged as the torchbearer of Dravidian ideology, coining the term ‘Dravidian Model’ to define the progressive path of governance that his government is walking on. At the helm of the DMK, he has won three elections — the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and the 2021 Assembly election — with a thumping majority, keeping together an alliance that includes the Congress, the Left parties, and the VCK.

On the contrary, the AIADMK, which had a formidable vote base, is being led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami, who became the Chief Minister by chance, after the demise of Jayalalithaa. He has consolidated his position in the party, but the question to be asked is whether the AIADMK has lost ground as it disintegrated into factions after 2016. With Mr. Palaniswami rebuffing the recent attempts at rapprochement with breakaway leaders, the scenario remains grim.

Is there a place for a third force, especially for someone from the cinema industry? Tamil superstar Rajinikanth promised to enter politics for decades — only to withdraw at the last minute. Actor Kamal Haasan floated Makkal Needhi Maiyam, but has settled for a Rajya Sabha seat, backing the DMK to fight the “fascist” BJP at the Centre.

Only Vijayakant, called ‘Black MGR’, was brave enough to enter politics. He floated the DMDK, when both Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa were alive, and even rose to be the Leader of the Opposition in 2011. His desire to be the ‘King’ by forming a Third Front with smaller parties, instead of being a ‘Kingmaker’ by aligning with the DMK, however, had ramifications for his electoral prospects. After his demise, his party is being propelled by his family members. It has to be seen where the party will be placed in the 2026 election.

PMK founder S. Ramadoss propped up his son Anbumani Ramadoss as the change that Tamil Nadu direly needed. However, that familial relationship seems to have soured, and the impact of the family fracas on electoral politics remains to be tested.

The right-wingers had pinned their hopes on IPS officer-turned-politician K. Annamalai, but were disappointed when he was sidelined by the BJP  leadership, at least for now. Then there is Naam Tamilar Katchi  leader  Seeman, known for his fiery speeches and Tamil nationalism. He has always contested the elections alone and has reserved 50% of the total seats contested for women.

Journey so far

When Mr. Vijay made his political debut in February 2024, just months ahead of the Lok Sabha election, he chose not to contest the general election that year. His party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, also opted out of the Erode East by-election. After his political plunge, his first major political appearance was at the party’s maiden State conference held at Vikravandi in Villupuram district in October last year. The conference drew massive crowds, largely his fans.

During the conference, Mr. Vijay declared the BJP his party’s “ideological enemy” and the DMK its “political enemy”. He also opened the door for alliances and power-sharing. However, even after one year, his overtures have not yielded any positive result in terms of alliance.

After the Vikkravandi rally, Mr. Vijay maintained a relatively low public profile until his party’s first anniversary. His public appearances during that period included a visit to Parandur in Kancheepuram district to oppose land acquisition for the proposed airport project and participation in a book launch.

The party’s political activities gained momentum only in 2025 with a focus on organisational development. Mr. Vijay appointed district secretaries and functionaries for various party wings and launched training programmes for booth-level agents to strengthen the grassroots network.

The actor-turned-politician has become vocal on both State and national issues, targeting the DMK and the BJP. He led a protest in Chennai demanding justice for the custodial death of Ajith Kumar, a temple security guard at the Bathrakaliamman Temple at Madappuram  in Sivaganga district.

The party’s second State conference, held last month at Parapathi on the outskirts of Madurai, again saw a large turnout. There, Mr. Vijay  declared that the battle was only between the DMK and the TVK and claimed that his party would script a new chapter in the State’s political history in the 2026 Assembly election, as the DMK and the AIADMK did in the 1967 and 1977 elections, coming to power for the first time.

“You can’t compare our leader with anyone except superstar Rajinikanth,” said K.G. Arunraj, TVK general secretary (propaganda and policy). The party, as a whole, believes that Mr. Vijay will ride to power on an anti-incumbency wave similar to the one witnessed in 1996, when Jayalalithaa was ousted from power at the end of her first term. That was when Mr. Rajinikanth lost his chance to emerge as a political leader and chose instead to continue his career in films. “On the contrary, our leader is quitting films at the peak of his career. So, people have faith in him,” Mr. Arunraj said. The party expects around 25% of the votes in 2026. Mr. Vijay’s campaign over the next six to seven months and his ability to convert his fan base into votes will decide his political career.

As of now, there is a consensus among political pundits that the TVK will garner more than 10% of the vote share in 2026. As it was evident from the two conferences and Saturday’s campaign in Tiruchi, the youth constitute a majority of his potential voters as of now.

M. Udayakumar, an engineering graduate from Tiruchi, does not share the optimism of his wife and Vijay fan Kavya about the TVK’s victory in the 2026 election. “It is doubtful whether the big turnouts will convert into votes. Vijay may win and his party will gain a few seats. But it will be difficult for him to come to power straightaway. It will take time,” he said.

“If we can strike an alliance, we will win. Even otherwise, we will. All in our family will vote for him,” said V. Dhanapal, TVK joint secretary of Thogamalai union in Tiruchi. “Vijay’s charisma and the people’s yearning for a change will ensure our victory. The ruling party is only aiding us,” said R. Edwin of Melapudur in Tiruchi, who turned up at the meeting, along with his wife Monica and young daughter, both of whom are avid fans of Mr. Vijay. “Today is my wife’s birthday, and I cannot give her a better gift than helping her see Vijay in person.”

Several young fans, like Nithya, too, gathered to see Mr. Vijay. “I just came to see him; I don’t know much about politics. But I am sure he will win,” she said. Jayanthi, a middle-aged woman of the city, had also come to see Mr. Vijay, along with several of her friends in her locality, though she said she didn’t know much about politics.

Women may constitute the next big vote base for the actor. L. Mirunalini, an academic, is a huge fan of Mr. Vijay. She said she and the women in her family would most likely vote for the TVK. Andal, a domestic help, said they had traditionally voted for the ‘two leaves’ symbol of the AIADMK. However, she didn’t think the AIADMK existed any more. Her daughters voted for Vijayakant. They are all undecided as of now.

One of the reasons for her dilemma could be the DMK’s welfare schemes targeting women, despite the State-backed liquor sales leading to widespread alcoholism, wreaking havoc on families and thousands of homes. There are many poor women in rural areas of districts, like Theni, who think that Mr. Vijay is their new saviour.

Another factor that will determine his political career is the backing of the minority communities. The actor, who signs as Joseph Vijay, is seeking the backing of Christians. The minority communities remain the backbone of the DMK-led alliance and despite his proclamations against the BJP, will these communities back him is the question. The Muslims may not, as recent fatwas urged members of the community not to entertain him as he had regularly portrayed Muslims as villains in his movies.

The mass appeal

Saturday’s campaign and the two preceding conferences showcase the actor’s mass appeal. In Tiruchi, the police gave Mr. Vijay time to launch his campaign from 10.30 a.m. to 11 a.m., but he could reach the venue only late in the afternoon, and his fans and party workers still lined up the route, despite the scorching heat.

Commenting on Mr. Vijay’s State-wide tour, R. Kannan, author of The DMK Years and biographer of Dravidian stalwarts C.N. Annadurai  and M.G. Ramachandran, said, “It is delayed. Better late than never. We need to wait and watch. Until now, Mr. Vijay was mostly holding events in closed halls, except for the two State conferences. For the first time, he is meeting the public through a State-wide outreach. We should observe the kind of response he receives from the people.”

Mr. Kannan said that during his tour, Mr. Vijay should address both State and local issues more clearly and deeply. “Until now, his themes were selective, and his speeches were brief. He should focus on five or six major State issues, while highlighting significant local issues in the regions he visits to gain traction and connect with the people.”

As for the DMK, Mr. Vijay is just another person who has been sponsored by the BJP to oppose the DMK in the election. DMK leaders believe he will disappear after the election. “He won’t eat too much into the DMK’s vote share, though he may cause some erosion. On the other hand, the AIADMK will suffer significantly, as Mr. Vijay will divert the anti-incumbency sentiment that would otherwise benefit the AIADMK,” says a senior leader. DMK leaders feel that Mr. Vijay lacks clarity on most of the issues he addresses in his speeches. “He says he will retrieve Katchatheevu. Does he believe that it will offer a permanent solution to the attacks on Tamil fishermen? What is his stance on honour killings,” asks a senior DMK leader.

There is no doubt about the mass appeal of the actor. But there have been several instances across the country in which the crowds have not converted into votes, the most notable being that of late actor Sivaji Ganesan. Unlike MGR who was with the DMK which he split when he started out on his own and Jayalalithaa who had a huge party to back her, Mr. Vijay is starting from scratch. His advantage is that he is popular and easily recognisable. In a bipolar political landscape, how many will vote for him? The answer could define Tamil Nadu’s politics for some time to come.