Trump's Iran War Hurting Republicans? Democrats’ Odds Of Winning US Senate Surge Before Midterms

Last Updated:March 09, 2026, 23:14 IST

Trump has frustrated some Republicans by shifting his focus from the economy to international affairs, such as the Iran conflict.

The chances of the Democratic Party winning the US Senate in this year’s midterm elections have surged to a new high amid President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, which has impacted oil markets across the world.

According to a prediction on the Polymarket website, the odds of Democrats have reached a new high of 47%, as compared to the chances of Republicans at 53%. The odds for Democrats have surged since the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28.

Furthermore, the odds of Democrats winning the US House of Representatives are at a staggering 85% over Republicans. A previous NBC News poll has shown that a majority of registered voters have disapproved of Donald Trump’s handling of immigration, cost of living and the war on Iran.

Trump has frustrated some Republicans by shifting his focus from the economy to international affairs, such as the Iran conflict, and to trade by driving up prices through his tariffs, which were struck down by the US Supreme Court last month.

Just 27% of Americans approved of the war on Iran, while 43% disapproved, in a Reuters/Ipsos survey released less than 48 hours after the first missiles were launched. A poll conducted by the Washington Post on March 1 found 52% oppose Trump’s airstrikes versus 39% who support it, with 9% saying they are unsure.

Another poll released by CNN on March 2 found that about 59% of Americans disapprove of the decision to go to war, including 68% of independent voters. However, a Fox News poll on March 3 said 61% Americans think that Iran poses “a real national security threat."

Republicans have a narrow majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential elections. Trump is currently reviewing a set of options to keep oil prices in check, signalling White House concerns that the spiralling war could hurt consumers ahead of the November midterms when Trump’s fellow Republicans are hoping to retain control of Congress.

During midterms, all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and about one-third of the 100 seats in the United States Senate are contested, along with many state and local offices such as governors and legislatures. These elections affect the balance of power in Washington, which has been with Trump so far.

News world Trump's Iran War Hurting Republicans? Democrats’ Odds Of Winning US Senate Surge Before Midterms

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