Were drumbeats for Rabi Lamichhane in India meant for PM Balen's ears in Nepal?

From Bhangra to Kathakali to Bharatnatyam. From celebratory drumbeats and bouquets to confetti and petal showers. Nothing was left wanting as Rabi Lamichhane, the chief of Nepal's ruling party, the Rastriya Swatantra Party, walked into the BJP headquarters in New Delhi. Even US Secretary of State Marco Rubio didn't get such a welcome in India, remarked an awestruck person on X.

A scroll through Rabi Lamichhane's X feed shows how busy he has been meeting leaders here. From Nitin Nabin, the chief of BJP on whose invitation he was here, to Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

What makes the red carpet spread out for Lamichhane is that too many noteworthy things have taken place in too short a time.

Balendra 'Balen' Shah, who hadn't spoken for almost two months since becoming the Prime Minister of Nepal, reached Parliament and took questions. His remark on the Indo-Nepal boundary issue sparked a massive controversy at home and in India.

"... India has not only encroached on Nepali territory, but Nepal has also encroached on Indian territory in many places," he said.

Then he went on to suggest third-party involvement. "We have spoken not only with India and China, but also with the UK government. Our view is that the UK should also take an interest, as the issue dates back to the period when British India left the region."

Balen, who rode a wave of protests by Gen Z that toppled the previous regime, faced massive protests over the remarks that Nepal had encroached upon Indian territory. Opposition parties, which had been battered in the general election, got a rallying point, and sought the PM's resignation.

Nepal's foreign ministry had to step in to control the damage. Balen was referring to "cross-border occupations in the Dasgaja (no-man's land) areas along the India-Nepal border", it clarified.

India outrightly rejected the idea of any third party getting involved. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said boundary-related matters are strictly bilateral, and being addressed through existing mechanisms established by the two countries.

Interestingly, Balen's remarks came on the eve of Rabi Lamichhane's five-day India visit, which began on June 1. Balen contested the election as a candidate of the RSP, which was co-founded by Lamichhane.

LAMICHHANE'S INDIA VISIT, WELCOME MADE ALL TAKE NOTE

While only the visit might have been planned, the incidents, which came in quick succession, are making people ask if the drumbeats for Lamichhane were meant for Balen's ears.

"The flower petals and dhol beats at BJP headquarters were not simply theatrical hospitality. They were a message to Kathmandu about who India considers worth engaging," Nepali commentator Binod Dhakal wrote in the Nepal News portal.

He said the reception Lamichhane got in New Delhi wasn't even received by stalwarts like Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' on their BJP-invited visits, and that it "signals something deliberate".

Keshav Pradhan, a veteran journalist who has been covering Nepal, Saarc and China-Tibet affairs, pointed to the uniqueness of the situation of Lamichhane's visit.

"Historically, the Nepal prime minister's first port of call has been India. But in this case, the leader of the ruling party has landed in India first to a grand welcome," Pradhan told India Today Digital.

Pradhan said he found it quite curious that the head of a party from Nepal got an Opinion piece published in an Indian national daily during his visit. "This kind of things might be done by the Russian or American Presidents before their visits. But Rabi Lamichhane isn't the head of a state," Pradhan said.

Since time immemorial, India and Nepal share a "roti-beti ka rishta" with people from both sides marrying and depending on livelihood across open frontiers, demarcated just by border pillars. Both neighbours have economic, cultural and strategic importance for the other.

Therefore, neither Delhi nor Kathmandu will want anything short of warm ties.

BALEN SHAH AND HIS INDIA-RELATED CONTROVERSIES

There are two Nepali leaders involved here and both are diametrically different. Many of Balendra Shah's moves have riled New Delhi, while Rabi Lamichhane has never engaged in any anti-India rhetoric.

Even when he was the Mayor of Kathmandu, Balen displayed a "Greater Nepal" map, encompassing swathes of Indian territory. After becoming the PM, Balen ordered strict implementation of customs duty, taxing anything beyond Rs 100 purchased from Indian markets. He had to make an about-turn after facing protests from Nepali citizens, who depend on markets on the Indian side, from medicines to groceries to electronics.

"When India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri wished to visit Kathmandu (on May 11-12), Balen Shah reportedly didn't want to meet him. His reported stance was that he wouldn't meet anyone below the rank of foreign minister. Earlier, he didn't even meet the Indian Ambassador to Nepal separately, but as a team of envoys. This is unprecedented," Pradhan told India Today Digital.

Add to these Balen's suggestion of involving a third party in border discussions with India.

On the other hand, you have Lamichhane, who comes across as a more mature and balanced politician, according to Nepal watchers.

This is an entirely new leadership in Nepal that New Delhi is dealing with. The young leaders came to power with a strong mandate in the election held in March. They have been in power for just two months now.

The Kathmandu Post quoted a source in New Delhi as saying that Lamichhane's visit was aimed at maintaining "high-level contacts with new Nepali leadership" and has "nothing to do with recent irritants in bilateral ties".

IS INDIA BUILDING AN ALTERNATIVE BRIDGE TO NEPAL?

A section of Nepal's population tends to assign "big brother" motives and wants its politicians to be assertive against New Delhi. Politicians are known for making noises that suit their constituents, but once they are elected to a constitutional office, they behave more responsibly.

However, when former PM KP Sharma Oli's grip on power weakened in 2020, he aggressively pushed the Lipulekh-Kalapani dispute. The move was seen as an attempt to rally nationalist sentiment and shore up his political position in Nepal.

On the other hand, Maoist Pushpa Kamal Dahal, despite being widely perceived as close to China, showed pragmatism as the prime minister, opting for solid ties with India.

"Interestingly, [Balendra] Shah had first accepted Modi's invitation. Yet he later let it be known that he would not be travelling abroad for the first year of his tenure. This did not sit well with the Indians," wrote Biswas Baral, the Editor of The Kathmandu Post, for The Diplomat. The piece was titled 'Nepal's Prime Minister Mistakes Mandate for Immunity'.

With Balen not sending across the right messages and announcing that he won't make any foreign trips in his first year in office, is India using Lamichhane as an alternative bridge to Nepal?

"Rabi [Lamichhane] represented the obvious alternative channel. He is accessible, genuinely warm in person, speaks Hindi with ease, has no institutional relationship with the Chinese Communist Party and carries no political history of anti-India rhetoric," wrote Dhakal in his Nepal News article.

"India is demonstrating that it has a productive relationship with the political force that actually runs Nepal's government, even if the man formally holding the prime ministerial office will not 'pick up the phone'," Dhakal explained.

Under PM Modi, India has laid greater emphasis on its "Neighbourhood First" policy. Nepal is an integral part of that. New Delhi has said that 98% of the Indo-Nepal border is claims-free, and there is a mechanism in place to discuss the irritants. The two sides have continued the relationship while working to resolve these.

Modi said he was "delighted to meet" Lamichhane, and that India looked forward to "collaborating with the new government to elevate the special and multifaceted relationship between our two countries to greater heights".

The discussions between the two went for about an hour, said Lamichhane.

"...I share your vision for a future where Nepal and India transcend past constraints to embrace a new era of development diplomacy," he wrote, responding to Modi's post.

Lamichhane could be the bridge that both countries mutually find best for now. He is the slip road for New Delhi, and it is likely that the establishment in Kathmandu wants the slip road to remain open.

IS THIS A SIGNAL FOR BALEN SHAH TO CHANGE?

Even Nepal watchers couldn't reveal much about the current equation between Balen Shah and Rabi Lamichhane. While Balen holds the top post, Lamichhane is the Chairman of the party that the PM belongs to. Where the loyalty of the elected representatives lies isn't clear yet.

In Nepal's 275-member Parliament, the RSP has 182 MPs. In Nepal's 275-member Parliament, the RSP has 182 MPs. It leads the strongest government Nepal has seen in recent years, with the earlier ones being coalitions of multiple parties.

The drumbeats and the red carpet for Lamichhane, obviously, wouldn't have gone unnoticed in Kathmandu.

"In Rabi Lamichhane's much-limelighted political tour to India, none is representing team Balendra, which might be a matter of friction in the days ahead," commented Kathmandu-based author and journalist Birat Anupam on X.

"Interestingly, Rabi's article, published in The Hindustan Times, is not shared by anyone from team Balendra," he said.

Balen, meanwhile, is facing criticism in Nepal for trying to rule with ordinances and centralisation of authority. Though he still enjoys popular support after successive governments have failed to curb corruption, his style of functioning is being attacked.

He is "alienating constituencies that any government eventually needs: the media, the intelligentsia, the opposition parties and key foreign partners", wrote Baral of The Kathmandu Post.

All stakeholders involved must be aware that Lamichhane's visit doesn't work as a complete substitute for the Nepal PM's visit. But for now, that might have been the best option for New Delhi. However, perceptions back in Nepal will have to be kept firmly in mind.

"It's a tightrope walk for India. When any party is close to India, the outfit faces troubles in Nepal. Nepalese people want a position of equidistance from both India and China. Pragmatic diplomacy consists of things that need to be done quietly, taking history into consideration," Pradhan told India Today Digital.

With Lamichhane still in India, Nepal's Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal is landing in New Delhi on Friday (June 5) on a two-day visit. New Delhi and Kathmandu might be looking to iron out the wrinkles caused by Balen Shah's remarks. Khanal's visit would be more formal and the reception is unlikely to be what Lamichhane received.

How Balen reacts to the drumbeats for Lamichhane in New Delhi is yet to be seen. But for now, India has reinforced the warmth it harbours for the Nepali people and their leadership through the grand welcome to Lamichhane, and a string of meetings. India's leadership has shown Nepal in unequivocal terms the significance it attaches to bilateral ties. If it couldn't display that through Balen Shah, it has done so via Rabi Lamichhane.

- Ends