Why Bangladesh's student uprising failed to replicate Assam's AGP moment

In 1985, after leading a successful movement against illegal infiltration in Assam, the Asom Gana Parishad - born out of the All Assam Students’ Union - stormed the assembly elections, winning 65 seats in the 126-member House.The popular Assam Movement of 1979-1985 managed to strike a chord with the regional aspirations of the Assamese people and energised the formation of Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), a regional party, as an alternative to the Congress party in the state in 1985.Nearly four decades later, Bangladesh witnessed a seemingly similar moment. The National Citizen’s Party (NCP) emerged from the student-led uprising that forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from office in 2024. The protests, initially triggered by anger over civil service job quotas and intensified by outrage at police violence, quickly spread across Dhaka and beyond.

According to the United Nations, up to 1,400 people were killed, most during the security crackdown ordered by Hasina.Unlike Assam’s student leaders in the 1985, the NCP failed to convert its moral authority into electoral success, managing to secure just 5 out of 299 seats.Despite the momentum of the uprising, the NCP faltered at the finishing line due to internal divisions, scarce resources, and weak grassroots networks.

Signs of strain had already surfaced before polling day. The NCP’s decision to join an 11-party alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami triggered visible cracks within the party. Several women leaders resigned, alleging that they had been sidelined.The student movement was widely perceived as rooted in inclusive and democratic ideals, but partnering with the hardline Jamaat appears to have alienated segments of the NCP’s liberal voter base.

Many of those voters are believed to have shifted towards Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).Following its defeat, the NCP accused authorities of “result tampering” and administrative manipulation. Party spokesperson Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain alleged at a late-night press conference that results were manipulated in constituencies including Dhaka-13, 15, 16, and 17.He claimed that in Dhaka-15, where Jamaat’s chief was reportedly leading by 20,000 votes, the BNP candidate was suddenly declared the winner without justification.The party has formally demanded recounts in multiple constituencies. However, beyond the allegations, the broader reality remains that the young leaders who once mobilised a powerful street movement now face the complex demands of electoral politics.For many within the NCP, the shift from agitation to governance has been disorienting. Some leaders took on advisory roles in the interim administration that followed Hasina’s exit, hoping to shape what one activist described as a “beautiful Bangladesh based on peace, equality, justice, and fairness.”With more than 151 seats in the 300-seat Parliament, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) swept the landmark parliamentary polls held on Thursday.Jamaat-e-Islami, leading an 11-party alliance, is heading for victories in around 75 seats, media reports said.BNP’s top leader Tarique Rahman is set to become Prime Minister, replacing the interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.