Why It Is Not So Easy For US To Change Regime In Iran: Exclusive From Intel Note

Last Updated:March 16, 2026, 16:08 IST

According to intel agencies, Mojtaba Khamenei is only a symbolic figure, while the real power now is with the Revolutionary Guard commanders who take security decisions

Even as the US-Israel-Iran war rages on, changing the regime in Iran is not so easy, according to an intelligence assessment.

The intelligence note states that true regime change would require sustained internal tension or occupation level intervention.

“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) grip on military, economy, and society blocks any internal overthrow. Right now, during wartime vacuum created by the strikes, which also killed many top IRGC and clerical figures, this intervention has shifted Iran from clerical theocracy toward de facto IRGC-dominated governance. US miscalculations underestimated Iran’s institutional resilience and nationalist backlash," it stated.

According to intel agencies, Mojtaba Khamenei is only a symbolic figure, while the real power now is with the Revolutionary Guard commanders who take security decisions.

Why Mojtaba Khamenei was picked

Even after the US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and decapitated the senior leadership, the system quickly changed with Mojtaba Khamenei.

“The establishment is aware that for an Islamic Republic to survive, they needed him. Regime change in Iran is extremely difficult for the United States because the system is in a powerful ideological framework. Without a unified domestic opposition or a large-scale ground intervention, which is costly external pressure, sanctions or limited strikes alone cannot dismantle the regime," according to the note.

An 88-member Assembly of Experts formally convened online sessions starting March 3 and elected Mojtaba Khamenei on March 9 as the new Supreme Leader.

According to multiple credible reports which confirm that senior IRGC commanders applied intense pressure through repeated phone calls, personnel meetings, psychological pressure and direct threats to dissenting clerics.

Why US may not have it easy

They also threatened and their families to force a rapid vote in Mojtaba’s favour and bypass any broader debate or alternative candidates. “No mass defections happened after attacks and agencies note external regime change would require a ground invasion which is politically unsustainable for the US," said sources.

The US policymakers assumed sanctions, maximum pressure and limited strikes would trigger collapse or empower moderates. The US underestimated the regime’s ideological reasons and IRGC loyalty

At least eight members boycotted the follow-up March 5 online session held from a secure site near Qom’s Fatima Masumeh shrine in protest over hereditary rule Mojtaba’s limited public clerical credentials and Ayatollah Khamenei’s known opposition to dynastic succession.

“The IRGC continued lobbying to suppress public dissent and push for a swift formal announcement, which finally came just after midnight on March 9," sources said.

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