AIMIM surge unsettles Congress, exposes cracks in minority vote strategy

The recent electoral performance of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the Bihar Assembly elections and Maharashtra civic polls has triggered fresh anxiety within the Congress, a party that has historically relied on consolidated minority support to remain electorally relevant.

A senior Minority Congress leader told India Today that while AIMIM’s rise has so far hurt regional parties like the RJD, SP, JD(U) and NCP more than the Congress directly. However, this growing acceptance of Asaduddin Owaisi and AIMIM amongst minority pockets will definitely pose threat to Congress lately if not soon particularly in Uttar Pradesh, where party has high hopes of revival.

The Bihar lesson Congress ignored

In Bihar, Owaisi repeatedly sought inclusion in the Mahagathbandhan, requesting just five seats. Congress and RJD dismissed the proposal, branding AIMIM as the BJP’s “B-team.” The election results, however, embarrassed the alliance. Congress managed to win only six seats, while AIMIM won five on its own and dented the Grand Alliance’s prospects on several others.

According to the Congress leader, AIMIM’s focused development pitch for the Seemanchal region, a Muslim-dominated and economically deprived belt, resonated more strongly than Congress’s warning against “vote division.” The rejection exposed the limits of Congress’s traditional minority mobilisation narrative.

Maharashtra shocker deepens concern

The unease intensified after AIMIM’s strong showing in Maharashtra’s local body and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. The party won 124 seats across 13 municipal corporations, outperforming Congress in key pockets. In Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, AIMIM secured 33 seats, leaving Congress trailing.

AIMIM also made significant gains by securing 21 seats in Vidarbha, 21 in Malegaon, 14 in Nanded, 10 in Dhule, and 8 in Solapur.

In Mumbai, it won eight corporator seats, more than both factions of the NCP and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. More strikingly, AIMIM breached the Govandi–Mankhurd belt, long considered a stronghold of Samajwadi Party state president and MLA Abu Asim Azmi, signalling a broader erosion of established minority leadership.

New alliances, old fears

With Bihar and Maharashtra as proof of concept, AIMIM is now exploring expansion into Assam and West Bengal. Political circles speculate on possible tactical understandings with Badruddin Ajmal’s party in Assam and Abbas Siddiqui’s Indian Secular Front in Bengal, moves that could further weaken Congress and its allies.

Congress is particularly worried about Uttar Pradesh, where talk of a potential AIMIM alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad and Swami Prasad Maurya has intensified. Party insiders fear this could not only disrupt Assembly calculations but also complicate INDIA bloc prospects in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Telangana offers rare relief

Ironically, the only soft spot in Congress–AIMIM relations lies in Telangana. Despite years of branding Owaisi as an extremist and BJP “B-team,” the Congress has found tactical comfort in Hyderabad. Chief Minister Revanth Reddy’s working relationship with Owaisi has paid dividends. AIMIM’s decision not to contest the Jubilee Hills by-election and instead back the Congress candidate helped the party reclaim a seat it had earlier lost by former cricketer Mohammad Azharuddin.

A strategic dilemma

Owaisi’s growing political footprint has clearly unsettled the Congress and the INDIA bloc. Internal deliberations are underway to reassess minority outreach strategies, but the party faces a dilemma.

However, given their recent public stance, making a new decision isn't easy; the fear of giving the BJP a political opening or alienating Hindu voters remains a significant concern.

- Ends