Anti-incumbency harms JD(U) in Raniganj seat

Araria: The incumbency factor played a decisive role in the electoral setbacks faced by JD(U) in the Raniganj (reserved) assembly constituency and by the BJP in Forbesganj. As a result, the NDA lost two crucial seats that it had successfully retained in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections.In Raniganj, the credibility of the administration was severely dented after the BDO and CO were indicted by Bihar vigilance officials over allegations of rampant corruption and bribery in revenue-related matters, including mutation processes, issuance of correction slips, and Jamabandi rectifications. Widespread complaints about the use of substandard materials in rural development works further eroded public trust and contributed to the declining popularity of the sitting JD(U) MLA, Schmit Rishideo.Poor and marginalised landholders, Basgit Parcha beneficiaries, govt land allottees, and others with unresolved land issues felt consistently neglected at the grassroots level. Their growing frustration resulted in the traditional NDA vote base, particularly BJP supporters, shifting significantly away from the ruling alliance, ultimately leading to the defeat of the JDU candidate in this reserved constituency.

In Forbesganj, anti-incumbency sentiments against the sitting BJP MLA were also clearly visible. However, these warning signs were reportedly overlooked during candidate selection, resulting in a narrow defeat for the party.Across Araria district, the JDU failed to retain even a single seat. The BJP, however, managed to hold onto two constituencies – Narpatganj and Sikti. The Congress also retained its Araria seat, albeit with a reduced margin compared to the 2020 elections.The RJD gained the Raniganj reserved seat from the JD(U) but suffered a significant loss in Jokihat, where AIMIM candidate Md Murshid Alam secured a comfortable victory. The RJD’s traditional vote bank appears visibly fragmented and weakened, further compounded by internal rebellion and factional disputes. The BJP too faced backlash from disgruntled aspirants who were denied tickets.