Between Records And Reminders: The Quiet Battle For Karnataka’s CM Chair

Last Updated:March 13, 2026, 08:00 IST

Ever since the Congress government was formed in May 2023, wide speculation has persisted that a power-sharing arrangement existed between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar

In politics, records are rarely just records. They are signals. They are messages. And sometimes they are perceived as warnings.

Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah knows this better than most.

Having just presented his record 17th state budget, Siddaramaiah quietly etched his name deeper into the political history of Karnataka—becoming the leader who has presented the highest number of budgets in the state. It is not merely a statistic. It is a reminder of longevity, experience, and authority in a political system where survival itself is an achievement. But as the veteran Chief Minister basked in the moment, another political milestone was unfolding in Bengaluru.

Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar completed six years as the president of the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC)—a tenure that places him among the longest-serving state Congress chiefs, second only to Home Minister Dr G Parameshwara, who held the post for eight years.

Two milestones. Two leaders. Two political messages. And hovering above both is the unresolved question that has shadowed the Congress government since the day it came to power in 2023: who will ultimately occupy the Chief Minister’s chair for the rest of the term?

A Congratulatory Message with Subtext

Siddaramaiah’s public message congratulating Shivakumar may have been seen as subtle but was done politically right. “Congratulations to Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar on completing six years as the KPCC president," the Chief Minister wrote on X.

He praised Shivakumar’s organisational skills, ideological commitment, and relentless work in rebuilding the Congress party in the state. “Despite being harassed by the opposition BJP through false cases, Shivakumar remained loyal to the party," Siddaramaiah noted, adding that such loyalty was an inspiration to party workers. The praise was generous and very different compared to the body language of both leaders.

But it was the line that carried the deeper political meaning: “Shivakumar, who is younger than me, has a bright political future." In political language, this sentence said several things at once. It acknowledged Shivakumar’s stature and praised his contribution but also subtly placed in the public domain how he saw Shivakumar’s ultimate political destination—somewhere ahead in time, not necessarily in the immediate present.

A Celebratory Dinner Fraught with Messaging

The dinner hosted by Shivakumar for legislators and party leaders to mark six years as KPCC chief was officially a celebration of organisational leadership. However, political observers read the subtext as something more familiar in Karnataka politics—a demonstration of strength.

Shivakumar’s journey as KPCC president began in difficult circumstances. When he took charge of the party organisation in 2020, the Congress in Karnataka was struggling with internal divisions, defections, and electoral setbacks. The task before him was to rebuild a demoralised organisation, which he did with responsibility, dedication, and actionable decisions. Over the next three years, Shivakumar invested enormous energy in reviving the party’s grassroots machinery. At one point, he told this reporter that he was inspired by the RSS’s organisational capabilities and would use their mantra to strengthen the forces within the Karnataka Congress.

When the Congress returned to power in the 2023 Assembly elections, the victory was credited to Shivakumar’s organisational work as a crucial factor, alongside Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA hold and popularity. It was this thumping victory of the Congress with 136 MLAs that strengthened a narrative within sections of the party: Shivakumar’s supporters said he had earned his claim to the Chief Minister’s chair.

The Unresolved Question of Succession

Ever since the Congress government was formed in May 2023, wide speculation has persisted that a power-sharing arrangement existed between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. Did it exist? No Congressman has ever confirmed it in any public forum except for Shivakumar’s supporters. That meeting was attended by just five individuals, and only they knew what transpired within.

According to this narrative, Siddaramaiah would serve as Chief Minister during the first half of the government’s tenure before handing over power to Shivakumar—but the Congress high command has never publicly confirmed such an agreement. Siddaramaiah has repeatedly denied its existence and says he will act according to the direction of the high command. The high command, meanwhile, is in no mood to take any decisions, taking into account political developments across the country and crucial elections in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Yet the speculation refuses to fade. The reason lies in the balance of power within the party itself. Siddaramaiah is the Congress’ most experienced and electorally tested leader in Karnataka. His mass base among backward classes and rural voters remains formidable. Shivakumar, on the other hand, represents organisational control, financial resources, and deep influence within the party structure. The result was a delicate arrangement: Siddaramaiah became Chief Minister, while Shivakumar was appointed Deputy Chief Minister and KPCC president. But such arrangements rarely eliminate ambition; they merely postpone it.

Siddaramaiah’s Message: Continuity

Over the past few months, Siddaramaiah has repeatedly signalled his intention to remain Chief Minister for the full five-year term. Responding bluntly to speculation about a leadership change, Siddaramaiah asked, “Yes, I will be the Chief Minister for five years. Do you have any doubt?"

The remark was not accidental. During the recent Congress Legislature Party meeting, Siddaramaiah hinted that he would present another budget next year. “In my next budget, I will ensure that every minister speaks on the demands of their departments," he said. For a leader who has just presented his 17th budget, the implication was clear: he expects to present the 18th as well.

Shivakumar’s Counter-signals

While Siddaramaiah speaks of continuity, Shivakumar has adopted a strategy that relies on symbolism and positioning. His recent visits to Delhi have fuelled speculation that he is quietly lobbying the high command to honour the purported 2023 understanding. Officially, Shivakumar insists his trips are related to party work, but he has never hidden his aspirations. Asked about them in the past, he responded with candour: “Yes, I aspire to become Chief Minister, who doesn’t?" However, he carefully balances this by stating he will follow whatever decision the high command takes.

The ‘Word’ That Sparked an Exchange

The simmering tension occasionally surfaces in subtle public exchanges. Last November, Shivakumar posted a message declaring, “Word power is world power," elaborating that the greatest force in politics is the ability to keep one’s word. The remark was widely interpreted as a reminder of the alleged power-sharing promise. Siddaramaiah’s post soon after was seen as a response: “A word is not power unless it betters the world for the people," he said.

The High Command’s Dilemma

At the centre of the drama sits the Congress high command. For the leadership in Delhi, the Karnataka government is a vital asset. Destabilising a successful government midway through its term carries risks, yet ignoring Shivakumar’s aspirations could create internal friction. The current strategy appears to be buying time. A cabinet reshuffle that Siddaramaiah sought permission for has been delayed until after elections in five key states. The message from Delhi is clear: Stability takes precedence over experimentation.

Arithmetic and Patience

The leadership tussle is also shaped by the arithmetic within the legislature party. Supporters of Shivakumar claim nearly 100 MLAs back him; Siddaramaiah’s camp insists the Chief Minister enjoys overwhelming support. Neither camp holds enough dominance to decisively settle the question, which is why the final decision will almost certainly be taken in Delhi.

For now, both leaders perform a delicate balancing act. Siddaramaiah emphasises governance and continuity, while Shivakumar emphasises organisational loyalty and patience. Publicly, both speak the language of unity; privately, their supporters continue to calculate possibilities. The real question is not whether the debate exists, but when the high command chooses to address it. As veteran leader Veerappa Moily noted, such decisions are taken in moments of calculation, not under pressure.

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