Bihar Assembly election: NDA faces uphill task to regain lost ground in Shahabad region

The upcoming Assembly election poses a major challenge for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Shahabad region, once considered its stronghold but where its performance has declined sharply in recent years.

The region comprises four districts - Rohtas, Buxar, Kaimur, and Bhojpur - which together account for 22 Assembly constituencies. The NDA managed to win only two - Ara and Barhara - both by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Alliance partner Janata Dal (United) failed to open its account.

The BJP is making concerted efforts to reclaim lost ground in a region where the NDA had won 19 of the 22 seats in the 2010 Assembly election.

The alliance’s decline began in 2015, when the party lost ground following the alliance between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad. Despite contesting the 2020 Assembly elections in alliance with the JD(U), the BJP again secured only two of the 22 seats.

In 2010, the NDA registered a landslide victory, winning 206 of the 243 Assembly seats in Bihar. The JD(U) had contested 141 seats and won 115, while the BJP won 91 of the 102 seats it contested. In 2015, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-JD(U)-Congress alliance captured 15 of the 22 seats in the Shahabad region.

In 2020, the NDA won two of the seven Assembly seats in Bhojpur, while the Grand Alliance took five. The NDA failed to win any seat in the other three districts - Buxar, Rohtas, and Kaimur. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MLA Mohammad Jama Khan, who had won from Chainpur in Kaimur district, later joined the JD(U) and is contesting again from the same seat.

The BJP’s recent organisational moves indicate efforts to strengthen its presence. Over 100 leaders have been inducted into the party’s Working Committee, and several rebel leaders have been accommodated in the State Committee. Local leaders from Shahabad have also been given representation in commissions and boards to prevent a repeat of the 2020 outcome.

The region’s political dynamics are heavily influenced by the Kushwaha and Rajput communities, both of which have significant numbers. The NDA lost all four Lok Sabha seats in the Shahabad belt - Buxar, Karakat, Sasaram, and Ara - mainly due to a division of votes between these two groups.

The Kushwahas, the second-largest bloc among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) after the Yadavs, are crucial to the NDA’s prospects. However, Upendra Kushwaha, a strong candidate from the community, had finished third in the Lok Sabha elections due to a split in votes caused by independent candidate Pawan Singh. In Ara, Union Minister and Rajput leader Raj Kumar Singh was also defeated.

To consolidate support, the BJP has allotted six seats to the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) led by Mr. Kushwaha, despite his party not having a single MLA in the current Assembly. Two of these - Dinara and Sasaram - fall within Shahabad.

JD(U) national president and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has also sought to consolidate Kushwaha support by nominating Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha, a prominent leader from the region, to the Bihar Legislative Council following the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. He has also been fielded from the Jagdishpur Assembly seat in Bhojpur.

To strengthen its hold among Rajputs, the BJP has inducted Bhojpuri actor Pawan Singh into the party. Although not contesting the elections, Mr. Singh has been named one of the BJP’s 40 star campaigners, alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and party president J.P. Nadda.

The BJP believes that the inclusion of Mr. Kushwaha and Mr. Singh under the NDA banner could prevent the vote division witnessed during the Lok Sabha elections. Candidate selection in Shahabad has been made with caste and regional factors in mind.

In Kaimur district, the NDA has also attempted to recalibrate its social equation. The alliance, which failed to win any of the district’s four seats in 2020, has fielded Bharat Bind and Sangeeta Kumari - both former RJD MLAs from Bhabua and Mohania - as BJP candidates this time.

In Buxar, the BJP has fielded former IPS officer Anand Mishra, who had contested unsuccessfully from the Buxar Lok Sabha seat earlier this year against RJD’s Sudhakar Singh.

In the Sasaram constituency, the BJP has fielded Snehlata, wife of Mr. Kushwaha. The seat is witnessing a triangular contest, with the RJD fielding Satendra Sah, who was arrested on October 20 soon after filing nomination papers, and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party fielding Rajput candidate Binay Singh.

Buxar and Bhojpur will go for elections in the first phase on November 6, while Kaimur and Rohtas will vote in the second phase on November 11.

Of the 22 seats in the region, the BJP is contesting nine, the JD(U) eight, the RLM two, and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) three. On the Opposition side, the RJD has fielded candidates in 11 seats, followed by the Congress and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) in four each, and one each by the CPI and Vikassheel Insaan Party.