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Toronto’s new condo sales fell 90% below the 10-year average in September 2025, signaling a market frozen by costs/ Image: Pexels
Toronto’s new condo market has crashed to levels not seen since the 1990s. Just 28 new condominium units were sold within the city in September, and 155 across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).
The figures represent a 90 per cent decline from the 10-year average, a sign of how deeply Canada’s largest housing market has frozen.
The big picture
After years of relentless price growth and a construction boom, Toronto’s housing market has entered a prolonged slump. The latest BILD data, compiled by Altus Group, paints a bleak picture of new home demand as developers struggle to attract buyers amid high borrowing costs, steep development charges, and affordability challenges.The slowdown is not confined to Toronto. All major Canadian housing markets, from Vancouver to Calgary, are facing a similar chill as the era of cheap money ends and buyers retreat to the sidelines.
What the report found
- Condo sales collapse: Only 28 new condos sold in Toronto proper and 155 across the GTA in September 2025. That’s 90% below the 10-year average.
- New home sales remain weak: Across all housing types (detached, semi-detached, townhomes, condos), there were 438 new home sales, down 29% year-on-year and 80% below the 10-year average.
- Prices flat at a ‘floor’: The benchmark price for new condos in the GTA held steady at $1.033 million, while new single-family homes averaged $1.437 million, down 8% year-on-year.
- Supply tightening: Developers added few new units to the market, meaning total inventory fell slightly.
- Future supply risk: Low current sales mean fewer projects will break ground, potentially creating a severe housing shortage by 2027–2028, according to BILD spokesperson Justin Sherwood.
Why it matters
Toronto’s housing market is central to Canada’s economy. The city’s real estate sector drives construction jobs, investment, and consumer spending. When sales plummet to 1990s levels, it signals deep structural distress, both for developers and policymakers.
- The current slump is driven by affordability pressures:
- High interest rates have pushed monthly mortgage payments beyond reach for many buyers.
- Rising construction and land costs mean developers struggle to build profitably at prices people can afford.
- Government fees and development charges continue to add tens of thousands of dollars to new home prices.
This combination has effectively frozen the pre-construction condo market, a critical segment that finances much of the city’s future housing supply.
Human and policy angle
For developers, these numbers translate into shelved projects and layoffs in construction. For buyers, it’s a paradox: even as sales collapse, prices haven’t fallen enough to make homes affordable.The result is a standstill where neither side can move. BILD and other industry groups are urging the federal and provincial governments to cut taxes and reduce development fees to revive the sector.
They argue that without intervention, today’s slowdown will worsen tomorrow’s housing shortage.Ontario’s new Bill 60, the “Fighting Delays, Building Faster Act” — aims to “standardize and streamline” development charges, but details remain limited. The industry says implementation will take time, while the need for relief is immediate.
The way forward
Experts warn that unless policy shifts soon, Toronto could face a two-stage crisis: a short-term construction freeze followed by a long-term supply crunch.
Lower inflation and potential interest rate cuts could help restore confidence, but developers insist that government action on costs is essential for recovery.For now, the city’s skyline may remain dotted with cranes, but many are standing idle.Toronto’s collapsing condo sales are a warning that Canada’s housing market, long sustained by optimism and low rates, is running out of financial and policy runwa
English (US) ·