Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for September 1, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices may see higher swings this week, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd. He shares the outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors:Gold and silver prices soared to fresh highs last week, with gold marking an all-time high on both COMEX and the domestic front, while silver reached its highest level on COMEX since 2011.

The rally was fueled by a combination of increasing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September, currently priced at around 85%, and rising geopolitical tensions including the Israel-Gaza conflict and renewed tariff escalations.

A weaker rupee, which hit a record low against the US dollar, further supported domestic bullion prices. US economic data showed resilience, with solid consumer spending and a 0.2% monthly rise in the PCE price index; however, persistent inflation and political pressure from President Trump on the Fed are reinforcing market expectations of an imminent rate cut.

Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole suggested that a policy shift is likely, though uncertainty remains.Meanwhile, ETF inflows, increased premiums in China, and festive demand in India added fundamental support to the price rally. Geopolitical uncertainty was also heightened by Trump’s controversial push to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns over central bank independence.On the trade front, ongoing US talks and legal challenges to Trump-era tariffs kept market participants cautious.

Looking ahead, updates from the trilateral meeting between Prime Minister Modi and leaders of China and Russia over the weekend, as well as potential updates on the US-India trade deal, both of which could introduce fresh volatility in bullion and currency markets.We are starting this week with a US holiday, on the back of labour day, volatility is expected to remain high. Along with the geo-political update which could continue to induce further momentum in prices, economic data scheduled this week could also trigger higher swings in prices.US jobs market data i.e. US private payrolls, non-farm payroll, JOLTS and weekly jobless claims will be important to keep an eye on. This will be enough to provide clarity on the US labour market and could also influence the interest rate cut probabilities for meetings to come in this year. Also, PMI numbers from major economies will be important to keep an eye on.Bias: Buy on dips - Resistance: Rs 1,06,000- 1,07,500 - Support: Rs 1,03,000- 102500(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)