High Oil Prices Could Slow Global Economic Growth In 2026, Warns Ex-IMF Chief Gita Gopinath

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Last Updated:March 15, 2026, 22:40 IST

Gita Gopinath warns rising oil prices from the Iran conflict could slow global growth and increase inflation.

Gita Gopinath has warned that rising oil prices driven by the Iran conflict could slow global economic growth and push inflation higher in the coming year.

In a post on X, the former IMF chief said if oil prices average around $85 per barrel in 2026, the increase could shave about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points off global economic growth. She added that higher energy costs could also raise headline inflation by around 60 basis points.

If we are now looking at an average of $85 a barrel for oil for 2026 then that could shave off around 0.3-0.4pp from global growth. Headline inflation could rise by 60 bps. Before the Iran conflict global growth was projected at 3.3% for 2026 on the assumption oil would average…— Gita Gopinath (@GitaGopinath) March 15, 2026

Gopinath noted that before the conflict involving Iran escalated, global growth for 2026 had been projected at 3.3%, based on an assumption that oil prices would average around $65 per barrel.

The warning comes as tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil markets higher, with traders increasingly concerned about disruptions to supply routes and energy exports from the region. Analysts say sustained high oil prices could put additional pressure on economies already grappling with inflation and slowing growth.

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First Published:

March 15, 2026, 22:40 IST

News world High Oil Prices Could Slow Global Economic Growth In 2026, Warns Ex-IMF Chief Gita Gopinath

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