IMD forecast: Cold wave conditions in these states in North India, heavy rainfall predicted over Tamil Nadu and Kerala

India is witnessing a contrasting weather pattern this week, with northern and central parts reeling under a cold wave while southern states brace for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) bulletin released at 8:17 pm on November 8, minimum temperatures have dropped significantly across several northwestern regions, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala are likely to experience widespread rain and thunderstorms through the week.

Cold wave conditions over northern and central India

The IMD has issued a cold wave warning for parts of east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh from November 9 to 10, with temperatures dipping well below seasonal averages.

The mercury has already fallen below 10 degrees Celsius in some regions, accompanied by anomalies of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius below normal in parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana.

The chill has also extended to adjoining regions, with night temperatures running 2 to 4 degrees Celsius below normal in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, parts of Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh. The IMD predicts that below-normal night temperatures will persist over northwest and adjoining central India for at least the next six to seven days, signaling an early onset of winter chill in the plains.

Residents in Jaipur, Udaipur, Gwalior, and Bhopal reported unusually cold mornings this week, with clear skies and dry northwesterly winds contributing to rapid nighttime cooling. The fall in minimum temperature by about 2 degrees Celsius is also expected over Vidarbha region and Chhattisgarh during the next two days, while the eastern part of India could experience a sharper 2 to 4 degrees Celsius drop in the next four days.Meteorologists attribute this cold wave pattern to the absence of significant cloud cover and dry continental air flow dominating the region after the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. The coming week will therefore continue to see cold mornings and evenings. No major rainfall is forecast in northern India during this period.

South India braces for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms

While the north battles cold and dry air, the southern states, particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala, are in for an extended spell of rain and thunderstorms.

The IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall or thundershowers at many places, with isolated heavy rainfall likely over Tamil Nadu during November 12–13.A thunderstorm accompanied by lightning is also expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal from November 9 to 12, and over Kerala and Mahe from November 9 to 10. This spell is attributed to the moisture-laden easterly winds associated with the northeast monsoon, which has been active across peninsular India.The weather bureau has cautioned residents in the southern coastal districts to stay alert for intense rainfall, lightning, and localised flooding during the peak of the spell. Heavy showers are expected to drench parts of Chennai, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Puducherry, and Karaikal over the weekend, while Kerala’s southern districts could also experience short but intense bursts of rain.

Day-by-day forecast highlights

Advisory and travel impacts

While no fishermen warnings have been issued yet, authorities have urged coastal communities in Tamil Nadu and Kerala to remain cautious as isolated heavy rainfall and thunderstorms may lead to rough sea conditions.

Those venturing into the Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal waters have been advised to stay updated on local forecasts and avoid risky sailing conditions during the rain-heavy days.Travellers heading to southern tourist destinations such as Madurai, Rameswaram, Kochi, and Thiruvananthapuram are also advised to plan cautiously as intermittent showers could disrupt road and air traffic. In contrast, the dry and cool weather in the north may offer comfortable travel conditions, though dense early morning fog could soon become an issue as temperatures continue to fall.The northeast monsoon remains active over southern India, ensuring that Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala receive continued rainfall through mid-November. Northern India, on the other hand, will stay under the influence of dry continental winds, maintaining cold and clear conditions.