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There will be rainfall occurring along its track of movement, especially along the east Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and northern Chhattisgarh, the IMD said.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast ‘above’ normal rainfall during September, even as the southwest monsoon season nears its draw this year. The weather department has also warned of landslides, mudslides in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh.
Quantitatively, the rainfall is forecast to be 109 per cent of the Long Period Average of 167.9mm for September. The weather department has warned of very heavy rainfall in September across Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, east Rajasthan.
“Our extended range forecasts heavy rain which could possibly trigger landslides, mudslides over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Rains are also expected over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, east Rajasthan, Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh and the west coast till September 4,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said on Sunday.
On September 2, a fresh low-pressure system is expected to develop in the Bay of Bengal. Rainfall is also likely over east Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and northern Chhattisgarh, the IMD said.
However, in the final month of the season, below-average rain is expected over Kerala, south Karnataka and adjoining Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and large parts of north eastern regions.
Even though September is a month for seasonal transition, the commencement of the withdrawal of the monsoon, the IMD chief said, has been ruled out during the first week of September.
“The upcoming low pressure system will bring rain along the Indo Gangetic plains. So, the monsoon withdrawal is unlikely in the first week of September,” he noted.
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The IMD defines June to September as the southwest monsoon season. But since the 1980s, the rainfall received over the country during September has been slightly increasing, the IMD director general said. Due to the spike in rainfall, the frequency if interaction between monsoon winds and post-monsoon weather systems has been increasing.
“After the monsoon season, as we approach the post-monsoon or winter season, the western disturbances grow stronger. When the monsoon winds interact with the western disturbances, there occurs higher-than-normal rainfall,” he explained.
In 2020, the IMD had revised the normal date for the commencement of the monsoon withdrawal (from the extreme parts of northwest India) to September 17 from the original date of September 1.
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