Israel Seeks Regime Change In Iran But Says Protesters Will 'Get Slaughtered': Report

Last Updated:March 18, 2026, 04:40 IST

An Israeli assessment said Iran’s regime is "not cracking" and is willing to "fight to the end" despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Israeli officials are hoping for a popular revolt in Iran to overthrow the clerical regime, even though it told US diplomats that Iranian protesters will “get slaughtered" if they take to the streets, according to a US State Department cable.

The cable reviewed by the Washington Post contained an Israeli assessment that Iran’s regime is “not cracking" and is willing to “fight to the end" despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and two weeks of relentless airstrikes by the US and Israel.

Israeli officials said “the people will get slaughtered" if they take to the streets against the regime, after thousands of people were killed in nationwide protests in January. Iran’s principal military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), still have the “upper hand", the cable says.

Despite the low possibility of a regime change, Israel is optimistic about a revolt and has urged the US to prepare to support protesters if that happens, according to the cable. This came after Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, called for Iranians to take to the streets this week to mark the ancient Persian “Festival of Fire" known as Chaharshanbe Suri.

Iranians ‘Betrayed’

According to Narges Bajoghli, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University, Iranians have long been skeptical of Israeli intentions and the dual messages in the cable are likely to be viewed as exploitative of Iranian lives. “I think a lot of people will feel very betrayed by this assessment," Bajoghli said.

The US-Israeli strikes have hit thousands of targets inside Iran, including nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile stockpiles, police stations and checkpoints set up by plainclothes internal security forces known as the Basij.

Overnight Israeli strikes also killed national security chief Ali Larijani and the head of the Basij force, Gholamreza Soleimani, marking the latest setback for the regime. Despite this, analysts and intelligence assessments claim that Iran’s hardline regime is unlikely to be replaced.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country “will strike hard at the terror regime and create conditions that will allow the brave Iranian people to cast off the yoke of this murderous regime." Other Israeli officials have said the assault on Iran is a success even if a popular uprising doesn’t happen, according to the Washington Post.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump also initially urged Iranians to “take over your government" but has recently acknowledged that Iran’s security forces would kill protesters. “They literally have people in the streets with machine guns, machine-gunning people down if they want to protest," he said.

US officials are also no longer pursuing the overthrow of Iran’s entrenched clerical and military establishment, showing that the regime’s resilience is one of many variables the Trump administration appeared to miscalculate as the war entered its third week with no clear end in sight.

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